Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will report its quarterly earnings after the market closes today. Based on options pricing, traders are anticipating a 6% move in either direction by the end of the week. That would put the stock somewhere between $143.92, a four-month high, and $127.09, just above where it traded following the recent U.S.-China tariff rollback.
Nvidia has rallied nearly 25% over the past month, erasing earlier losses and putting it up around 1% for the year. As of the May 28 open, the stock was trading at $135.50, with a slight 0.06% gain from the previous close.
Here’s the catch: Nvidia hasn’t seen a post-earnings rally in a year. The last time it did was May 2024, when shares jumped more than 9% on a blowout report and the announcement of its 10-for-1 stock split, a move that landed it in the Dow.
Since then, Nvidia has continued to beat expectations, but that hasn’t translated into share price gains. The last three earnings reports all saw the stock drop, including a nearly 9% dip in February, even though the company delivered strong results and robust AI chip demand.
So, how does Nvidia stock usually react after earnings? Let’s take a look at the last two years of post-report price moves.
Two years of Nvidia earnings and the market’s reaction
Nvidia has beaten Wall Street expectations in each of its last nine quarters, but that hasn’t guaranteed a positive stock reaction. Here’s how the stock performed the day after earnings over the past two years:
| Earnings date | Fiscal quarter | Next-day stock price change (% at close) |
| Feb 22, 2023 | Q4 FY2023 | +14.0% |
| May 24, 2023 | Q1 FY2024 | +24.4% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Q2 FY2024 | +0.1% |
| Nov 21, 2023 | Q3 FY2024 | -2.5% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | Q4 FY2024 | +16.4% |
| May 22, 2024 | Q1 FY2025 | +9.3% |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Q2 FY2025 | -6.6% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Q3 FY2025 | -1.9% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Q4 FY2025 | -8.5% |
| May 28, 2025 | Q1 FY2026 | ? |
So yes, Nvidia beats estimates. But the next-day reaction can go either way.
When a beat still leads to a selloff
Indeed, strong earnings are only part of the equation. As we’ve seen, even beating estimates can lead to a selloff if guidance is soft or the broader market’s on edge.
What really matters to investors is what comes next. Forward guidance plays a big role here. Back in February 2025, for example, Nvidia beat expectations on both revenue and earnings, but the stock still slid 8.5% the next day. Why? Management flagged concerns about ongoing export restrictions to China, and that was enough to spook the market.
There’s also the broader backdrop to consider. Even the strongest results can get overshadowed if the macro picture isn’t supportive. Things like inflation, rate hikes, and general market volatility tend to weigh on high-growth names like Nvidia, regardless of how strong the numbers are.
Other times, it’s just a case of expectations being too high. When expectations are sky-high, even a great report might not feel like enough. Investors sell the news, not because it was bad, but because it wasn’t mind-blowing.
Geopolitical tension doesn’t help either. Nvidia’s reliance on advanced chip exports and exposure to China make it particularly sensitive to global headlines.
Featured image via Shutterstock.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
