XRP has flashed a major sell signal after its Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropped below 1, indicating that investors are increasingly selling the asset at a loss.

XRP’s SOPR, an on-chain metric used to show whether tokens moved on the blockchain are realizing profits or losses, has dropped to 0.96 as of press time, according to on-chain data fetched by Finbold from Glassnode, a crypto analytics platform. 

Essentially, the drop below 1 of XRP’s SOPR shows holders have been realizing losses in the past four weeks.

XRP SOPR 30-day EMA. Source: Glassnode

Is XRP price action in 2026 mirroring its 2022 capitulation?

The SOPR drop below 1 is reminiscent of its consolidation between September 2021 and May 2022. Worth noting that the XRP price experienced a capitulation of more than 50% in mid 2022 after its SOPR consistently dropped below 1. After losing its support level around $0.57 in May 2022, the XRP price dropped 50% to a low of $0.28 in mid June 2022.

XRP/USD weekly chart showing 2022 selloff. Source: TradingView

With its SOPR already below 1 amid the macro crypto bearish outlook, XRP price could be on the cusp of further capitulation. Considering the altcoin’s diminishing returns due to its market growth, a 40% to 50% drop from its current value will peg the asset to about $0.80.

XRP/USD weekly chart showing a potential capitulation target. Source: TradingView

Can whales prevent further selloff?

Amid this identified massive XRP sell signal, on-chain data shows whales and sharks have been on a buying spree since the October crypto crash. 

XRP Whale balance since the October 11 crash. Source: Santimient

Specifically, whales holding between 10 million and 1 billion coins have accumulated 4.18 billion units since the October 11 crypto capitulation, according to Santimient. As such, this cohort now holds 19.61 billion coins, which represents 32% of its total circulating supply.