The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to rule on multiple applications for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). If approved, this regulatory decision could mark a major shift in how investors access XRP, potentially driving a price surge.
To this end, the SEC has until mid-October 2025 to approve or reject these ETF proposals. Notable filings include Grayscale’s application to convert its XRP Trust into a spot ETF and submissions from 21Shares and Bitwise. However, depending on the review process, a decision could come as early as mid-April 2025.
These applications have emerged despite the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Ripple. Still, the XRP community remains optimistic, believing approval odds have improved under the cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment.
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Interestingly, as reported by Finbold, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas project a 65% chance of a spot XRP ETF being approved.
AI predicts XRP’s price
Nevertheless, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o to determine XRP’s potential price movement if the ETF is approved, considering that such an investment product has the potential to attract institutional capital.
The artificial intelligence (AI) model acknowledged that the regulatory go-ahead could drive significant price growth for XRP but cautioned that several factors will influence the strength of the growth.
One of the biggest drivers would be institutional demand. If major asset managers like BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) launch an XRP ETF, it could attract significant capital, boosting prices. ChatGPT also noted that general market sentiment would be crucial; if the broader crypto space remains bullish, XRP could rise alongside it.
On the other hand, the AI platform pointed out that, unlike Bitcoin (BTC), XRP has a large pre-mined supply, with a significant portion held in escrow by Ripple. Therefore, strong ETF inflows would be needed to offset potential selling pressure.
Finally, regulatory clarity will also play a role, as greater acceptance of XRP in the financial system could enhance investor confidence.
Regarding price movement, ChatGPT stated that a 10% to 30% increase could push the token to $2.85 to $3.35 in a mildly bullish scenario. A moderate surge of 50% to 100% could send prices from $3.90 to $5.20, while a highly bullish case, similar to Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rally, could propel XRP as high as $7.50 to $10.40.
Beyond these estimates, ChatGPT provided a more likely scenario for XRP by drawing a comparison to Bitcoin’s ETF performance. In this case, the AI model projected that if Bitcoin’s ETF is used as a benchmark, XRP could realistically see a twofold to threefold increase over time, making $5 to $7 a reasonable short-term target. In the long run, broader institutional adoption and sustained demand could push XRP beyond $10.
XRP’s regulatory milestone
The ETF approval would serve as a key milestone for XRP, given that the SEC’s case against Ripple has previously weighed down the asset. As things stand, speculation is growing that the legal matter could be resolved soon.
With pro-crypto advocate Paul Atkins being nominated to lead the agency, the XRP community anticipates that he may push for a dismissal of the case or promote a settlement favorable to Ripple.
After the SEC abruptly withdrew its lawsuit against Coinbase, there is speculation that a similar outcome could be possible in its legal battle with Ripple. The SEC’s decision, filed with prejudice on February 21, 2025, ends a nearly two-year case accusing Coinbase of operating as an unregistered securities exchange.
XRP price analysis
XRP was trading at $2.58 by press time, down about 0.8% in the last 24 hours. On a weekly timeframe, the asset has plunged over 7%.
XRP’s price is generally struggling alongside the broader cryptocurrency market, signaling possible sustained short-term bearishness as it trades below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.68. However, the 200-day SMA at $1.43 suggests a long-term bullish outlook.
Featured image via Shutterstock
