XRP erased more than $30 billion in market capitalization during the first three months of 2026, marking one of the most turbulent stretches for the cryptocurrency.
Its capitalization declined from $111.58 billion on January 1 to $81.12 billion by March 31, a drop of $30.46 billion. The losses also saw XRP regularly slip in the crypto rankings, falling to the fourth spot behind BNB.
The decline was reflected in price action, with XRP plunging about 26% year-to-date at $1.35 as of press time.
The quarter opened strongly, with XRP’s market value peaking at $143.24 billion on January 6 before reversing sharply to $74.62 billion by February 6. Although prices staged a modest recovery afterward, it was not enough to offset the broader losses.
Why XRP price has struggled in 2026
Much of the downturn reflected XRP’s tight correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), at about 0.84 during the period. As Bitcoin fell below $70,000 in early February, its lowest level since late 2024, XRP saw amplified moves, trading roughly 1.8 times more aggressively and pulling the wider altcoin market lower.
The sell-off was exacerbated by over $2.2 billion in liquidations, which triggered cascading declines as stop-loss orders accelerated the drop and broke key support levels.
At the same time, momentum from spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 began to fade. While the seven funds drew a combined $1.44 billion by late March, inflows slowed to their lowest levels in February, signaling waning demand.
Technical indicators added to the weakness, with XRP falling below its 200-week EMA, forming a death cross, and repeatedly failing to hold support at $1.60 and $2.05. Interestingly, seasonal trends also weighed, as February is historically a weak month.
Broader macro pressures, including Middle East tensions, rising oil prices, and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy, further dampened risk appetite for cryptocurrencies.
XRP flashes breakout potential
Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest XRP may be laying the groundwork for a potential rally after weeks of consolidation.
To this end, analysis by Ali Martinez in a March 31 X post points to an ascending triangle pattern on the monthly chart, a structure typically seen as a bullish continuation signal, marked by rising support and steady resistance.
Per the analysis, XRP’s price action reflects growing demand, with buyers stepping in at higher levels while sellers struggle to push prices lower. Key levels include historical support near $0.11, a consolidation range between $0.90 and $1.60, and major resistance at $3.32, its 2018 all-time high.
Beyond this, the analysis outlines upside targets of $27.17 and $48.12, based on technical projections rather than past price action.
If the pattern holds, XRP could offer a short-term buying opportunity near rising support, with a breakout above resistance likely to strengthen bullish momentum.
Over the longer term, the setup points to a sustained uptrend, though it remains sensitive to broader market conditions, particularly Bitcoin’s influence on altcoins.
