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AI model predicts 95% chance Nvidia stock stays below this price by March 22

AI model predicts 95% chance Nvidia stock stays below this price by March 22

The last few trading days have sent jitters down investors’ spines as the semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) seemingly lost its relentless upward momentum. 

Indeed, after rising at an average pace of $49.45 per week and $6.74 per day between the start of the year and March 7, NVDA shares suddenly experienced a $115 fall in just two trading sessions.

While it remains uncertain if the retracement is a temporary correction for the blue-chip chipmaker or the start of a protracted downtrend for Nvidia, the two-day action has somewhat changed the calculation for where the company might stand by the end of the month.

In the debate that emerged from the drop, OptionRecom, a platform specializing in optimizing options trading strategies for reduced risk, took to X to share what its own artificial intelligence (AI) model is projecting for Nvidia in the coming days.

OptionRecom’s AI analysis indicates a strong likelihood (95%) that NVIDIA Corporation’s stock will not breach the $1,030 level by March 22nd. 

Notably, a 1030/1040 call spread for March 22nd at a premium of $110 on March 7. Due to market adjustments, the cost of entering the same position decreased to $80 by March 11. 

This premium recalibration is indicative of the market’s reassessment of NVDA’s short-term price ceiling.

Admittedly, even if Nvidia reclaimed its average 2024 growth pace of $6.74 per day, it would only reach $925.14 by March 22, and even if it doubled said pace, NVDA stock would only find itself at $992.54, given its latest closing price of $857.74.

Nvidia stock price chart

Despite the most recent setbacks, Nvidia has done exceedingly well in the stock market ever since the AI boom started in earnest late in 2022. 

The last 52 weeks saw NVDA shares rise 273.48%, and since the start of 2024, the stock surge a total of 78.07%.

NVDA YTD stock price chart. Source: Finbold

While the latest close saw Nvidia at $857.74 per share – 2% in the red – its more recent performance has, nonetheless, been generally strong. NVDA is up 18.72% in the last 30 days and despite the 2-day decline greater than $100, the stock is 0.63% in the green on the weekly chart.

Finally, Nvidia stock’s performance in Tuesday’s premarket hints that the chipmaker is poised to regain its upward momentum as it is, by the time of publication, 1.50% in the green – relatively close to erasing Monday’s losses.

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