Markets are increasingly bracing for another U.S. federal government shutdown as the January 30 funding deadline approaches with no clear agreement in place.
To this end, prediction markets are currently pricing in an approximately 82% probability that the government will shut down by January 31, a sharp increase in recent days.
The surge in shutdown odds reflects a combination of stalled talks in Congress, unresolved disputes over Department of Homeland Security funding and immigration policy, and a severely compressed legislative calendar.
With little evidence of momentum toward a clean continuing resolution, investors are positioning for at least a temporary lapse in government funding, a scenario that has historically triggered defensive and alternative asset flows.
Against this backdrop, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT to identify three assets that tend to perform relatively well during U.S. government shutdowns, based on current market conditions and historical market behavior.
Gold
Gold is currently trading at record highs above $5,000 and remains one of the strongest-performing macro assets.
ChatGPT noted that the metal’s strength reflects rising political uncertainty, sustained central bank buying, and demand from investors seeking protection from fiscal and governance risk.
In this context, a government shutdown typically amplifies these forces by highlighting institutional dysfunction and increasing near-term uncertainty.
The AI model added that gold’s elevated price level suggests markets are already hedging against political risk rather than waiting for a shutdown to formally begin.
Meanwhile, at the time of reporting, the yellow metal was valued at $5,067, up 17% year to date.
U.S. Treasuries
Long-term U.S. Treasuries, particularly those with maturities of 10 to 30 years, have historically benefited during shutdown periods despite the political nature of the event.
According to ChatGPT, shutdowns often dampen growth expectations, delay economic data, and increase overall market volatility, conditions that tend to push yields lower.
While Treasuries are directly linked to the U.S. government, they continue to function as the global risk-free benchmark, with demand often rising as investors adopt more defensive positioning.
Bitcoin (BTC)
The third pick by ChatGPT was Bitcoin (BTC), which remains a higher-volatility asset but continues to attract attention during periods of political dysfunction due to its non-sovereign nature.
Its current market state reflects consolidation and sensitivity to liquidity conditions rather than outright risk aversion.
During prolonged shutdowns or periods of sustained uncertainty, the AI platform noted that Bitcoin has historically benefited from narratives centered on government inefficiency and alternative monetary systems.
While short-term price action can be uneven, extended political stress has often renewed investor interest in the asset.
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $87,623, down more than 1% on the day and nearly 6% on a weekly basis.
In summary, ChatGPT noted that each of the three assets represents a distinct way investors have historically positioned when Washington gridlock threatens to disrupt normal government operations.
Featured image via Shutterstock
