The Death Cross is generally considered a particularly decisive indicator that a stock is about to plummet, but judging by its previous performance, it could serve as a ‘buy’ recommendation for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN).
Specifically, AMZN shares flashed the signal on March 11 for the first time in almost a year – the last one happened in April 2025 – as the short-term moving average (MA) met the long-term line.
This cross occurred after a week of decline for Amazon stock and in the midst of significant volatility for the technology giant. Indeed, AMZN shares are 1.62% red in the last week, 6.54% up in the last month, but also down 6.11% in the year-to-date (YTD) chart and, at press time, changing hands at $211.51.
Why Amazon stock might rally after latest Death Cross
Despite such performance, the April 2025 Death Cross marked the end of the decline for Amazon, and the firm enjoyed a Golden Cross – the opposite, bullish indicator – some three months later, in July.
Additionally, between the April lows near $167 and the time the uptrend finally broke with highs of approximately $254 in November 2025, AMZN stock rallied 51%.
Technical analysis hints that Amazon stock is a ‘Sell’ in March 2026
Still, conventional wisdom dictates that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future success, and technical analysis (TA) of Amazon equity’s last day and week in the stock market corroborates this notion, per the data Finbold retrieved from TradingView on March 12.
Indeed, there appears to be an agreement between oscillators, moving averages, and the synthesis of used signals that investors would be wise to sell AMZN shares, at least when applied to the 24-hour and 7-day timeframes.
Notably, the same analysis does not move, overall, above being ‘Neutral’ even when applied to Amazon stock’s relatively strong last 30 days, with the exception of MA, which does rate it as a ‘buy.’
Wall Street sets Amazon stock price target for next 12 months
Elsewhere, Wall Street analysts appear unfazed by the technical side of the equity. Overall and based on the last three months of analysis, AMZN shares are rated as a ‘Strong Buy’ and are, on average, expected to rally to $280.64 within the coming 12 months.
Considering such a price target is 32.68% above the press time price of $211.51, it is, arguably accidentally, in close synchronization with the performance seen following the previous Death Cross.
Lastly, possibly the strongest indication that the performance seen following April of 2025 will not repeat after March 2026 might lie in the overall state of big tech.
Why Amazon stock might not repeat 2025 performance in 2026
Though the industry remains remarkably wealthy and at exceptionally high valuations, investors have been giving ample signs that they are anxious regarding the prevailing structure of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
Perhaps the strongest sign of this uncertainty is evident with the poster child of AI expansion, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).
The blue-chip chipmaker has not only suffered a massive drop in the wake of its blockbuster earnings report but has, in the grander scheme of things, remained fairly stagnant since failing to keep a market capitalization above $5 trillion late last year.
Such relative underperformance came amidst continued supposed expansion and adoption of artificial intelligence and in spite of continuous Wall Street optimism.
Amazon itself is a showcase of this trend with its 2026 stock market performance, though, once again, past performance is a middling guide at best, and there is always a chance that cutting-edge technology will generate a breakthrough when least expected.
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