Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is heading into its first-quarter 2026 earnings report with steady revenue growth expected, alongside rising scrutiny around profitability and capital spending.
Indeed, this comes as AMZN shares have continued to show strong momentum over the past month, rising 32% during the period. At the close of Friday’s session, Amazon shares were valued at $263, up 3.5% on the day.
Amazon’s earnings projections
Consensus projections for the March-ended quarter point to earnings per share of $1.61 to $1.65. Revenue is expected between $177 billion and $178 billion, representing a 13% to 14% increase year over year.
Within that total, Amazon Web Services is projected to generate roughly $36.8 billion, reinforcing its role as the company’s primary profit engine. These estimates sit within Amazon’s own guidance issued alongside its fourth-quarter 2025 results, when it forecast Q1 revenue between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion.
It is also worth noting that Amazon reported $213.39 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, up 14% year over year and ahead of expectations, while earnings per share came in at $1.95, slightly below consensus.
Investor focus is now centered on whether that trend continues. AWS growth remains the key variable, particularly as Amazon ramps up investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Capital expenditures are projected to approach $200 billion in 2026, a significant increase aimed at expanding data center capacity and supporting AI-driven services. While this supports long-term growth, it is weighing on near-term profitability.
AMZN stock price prediction
To gauge how AMZN stock might react after earnings, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s ChatGPT for insights. The model suggests a measured reaction rather than a sharp breakout, with the most likely range between $245 and $265 following the release.
Upside toward $270 to $295 would likely require a clear reacceleration in AWS growth, strong guidance, and evidence that AI investments are driving revenue momentum.
On the downside, ChatGPT noted that weaker cloud performance or a higher spending outlook could push the stock toward $220 to $240, even if headline revenue meets expectations.
The broader takeaway is that Amazon’s growth story remains intact, but the focus has shifted to efficiency and returns. With solid revenue growth, the key question is how quickly it can convert heavy investments into sustained profit expansion.
