The first trading days of 2026 offered little insight into how the stock of Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) giant, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), might fare in January.
After a strong finish to 2025, which saw an almost uninterrupted rally from late November through late December, Tesla shares pulled back at the start of the new year. The TSLA stock fell from $449.72 to $438.07 on January 2 before rebounding to a closing price of $451.67.
With Tesla shares trading around $449.83 in pre-market action on January 6, volatility remains elevated, leaving the stock seemingly as likely to extend its correction as it is to resume its rally, setting the stage for AI-driven forecasts for January 31, 2026.
Technical indicators hint at Tesla stock price uncertainty
Technical indicators for Tesla stock are not significantly more decisive than its price movements. For example, TSLA shares remain, even following the end-of-2025 correction, above both the 200 and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA).
However, their relative strength index (RSI) reads 48, showing that the stock is neither particularly overbought nor oversold – and, thus, that it could easily fall, rally, or trade sideways.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slope, on the other hand, indicates that the upward momentum Tesla stock enjoyed between late November and late December is continuing to weaken, hinting that there will not be a powerful rally by January 31.
Finbold AI models moderately optimistic about Tesla stock January 31 price
Lastly, Finbold’s artificial intelligence (AI) prediction tool showed some optimism toward TSLA shares, despite the overall uncertainty.
On average, the involved models estimated that Tesla stock will rally 3.21% from its last closing price and reach $465.44 by January 31, based on six different technical indicators.
Simultaneously, the most optimistic model was Claude Sonnet 4, which predicted a 7.66% rally, and the most pessimistic proved to be Gemini 2.5 Flash, given that it considers TSLA stock is unlikely to rally more than 0.95% by January 31.
Ultimately, the lukewarm predictions might indeed prove accurate.
Tesla has, so far, survived with relatively weak headwinds, its announcing that fourth-quarter (Q4) deliveries came in at 418,227, 16% lower than in 2024, meaning the way is open for a rally should there be a particularly bullish announcement pertaining to a project such as the Cybercab.
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