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Analysts predict Lucid stock to soar 30% despite price target cut

Analyst predict Lucid stock to soar 30% despite price target cut
Darija Gvozderac

Investors in the electric vehicle (EV) sector have witnessed a volatile year for Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID) stock in 2024. Despite exceeding analyst expectations for vehicle deliveries in Q1, LCID’s share price has continued to decline. 

However, a recent analyst prediction by John Murphy of Bank of America offers a potential counterpoint. While Murphy recently revised LCID price target downward, from $4.50 to $3.50, he still forecasts a significant 30% upswing for LCID stock from its current price.

This intriguing forecast compels us to explore the factors influencing Lucid’s current trajectory within the EV marketplace.

Downward price target: a more realistic picture?

John Murphy’s downward revision of Lucid’s price target may be a more realistic reflection of the company’s current situation.  

The missed production target and ongoing challenges suggest the initial price target may have been overly optimistic. 

LCID stock YTD price chart. Source: Finbold

Lucid’s stock price surged at Tuesday’s open, only to stumble and partially retrace its gains throughout the day. 

By the last close on Wednesday, April 10, LCID ended at $2.65, reflecting a -1.85% loss for the day. While there was a modest five-day gain of 1.20%, this increase pales in comparison to the significant six-month decline of -49.15%. 

This price analysis highlights the ongoing volatility surrounding LCID and the need to consider the broader context when evaluating short-term changes.

Lucid’s challenges 

While exceeding delivery estimates might seem positive on the surface, it’s crucial to consider the context.

The EV market is fiercely competitive, with established players like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) boasting significantly higher production volumes. Lucid’s delivery numbers, while encouraging, may not translate into long-term market share dominance.

Additionally, the company’s dependence on the financial backing of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) raises questions about the company’s long-term sustainability. 

Can Lucid achieve profitability on its own, or will it continue to rely on external funding? This reliance could limit future decision-making autonomy and potentially hinder innovation.

Outlook amidst analyst forecast and market realities

In conclusion, the analyst prediction for a 30% upswing in Lucid stock, while intriguing, is tempered by the realities of the current market climate. 

The company’s extended downward price trend and the muted investor response following the delivery report suggest a potential for recovery, but it may not be immediate. 

A more definitive picture will emerge on May 6, with the release of Lucid’s earnings report. This comprehensive financial data will provide a broader context for sales figures and potentially influence a more sustained upward trajectory for the stock price. 

However, based on the data available at the time of publication, the near-term outlook for a significant uptick in LCID remains uncertain.

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