Bitcoin (BTC) price could reach $256,000 within 12 months, according to Adam Livingston, an advisor to Saturn Credit, who argues the flagship coin is now historically cheap relative to gold (XAUT).
In an X post on June 11, Livingston stated that the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is now about 76% below its long-term power-law fair value. As such, he noted that if BTC price returns to that fair value, it would roughly quadruple against gold, thus a target of $256,000.
However, this Bitcoin price target holds only if Gold continues to consolidate during this period. Furthermore, if Gold keeps falling, the implied Bitcoin target would drop lower over the next 12 months.
To support his thesis, Livingston cited past instances in which the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio fell sharply below the power-law fair value. For instance, he noted that Bitcoin price rose 176% in the year after the 2015 bear market low, 1,087% after the 2020 COVID crash, and 159% following the 2022 FTX collapse.
As such, Livingston argues the current setup is more extreme than any of those episodes. With the past five −1.5 sigma readings in the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio’s history resolving into rallies within 12 months, he anticipates a comparable rebound, setting a target of $256,000.
Bitcoin and Gold price outlook
Year-to-date (YTD), Bitcoin price has fallen by over 28%, trading at about $62,770 at press time. However, the flags coin has found a strong buy wall around $61,000, coinciding with the February lows.
On the other hand, Gold price has dropped nearly 6% YTD, trading at approximately $4,078 per ounce at the time of reporting. However, the metal lost its February support level near $4,400 per ounce.
As such, Livingston’s thesis could hold over the coming 12 months as more capital rotates from gold boosts BTC.
