A leading market strategist has projected that the S&P 500 could reach 7,000, building on the ongoing bullish momentum surrounding the index.
Notably, the index ended the last session at 6,229.98, down 0.8% after being rattled by renewed retaliatory tariffs from President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the benchmark is up nearly 4% over the past month.
According to a price outlook analysis by EliteOptionsTrader, the index has not only erased a 1,300-point decline in just three months but also broken back above its all-time highs, signaling that the rally is far from over, he said in an X post on July 8.
In early April, the S&P 500 had dropped sharply amid market uncertainty, but the decline was swiftly reversed. By July, the index has surged past the 6,200 level.
The analysis shows the SPX reclaiming critical Fibonacci levels, notably surpassing the 6,317 resistance zone.
Drawing from historical patterns, the analyst compared the current rally to the 2020–2021 surge, during which the S&P 500 gained 42% over 13 months. A similar trajectory now suggests a potential move toward 7,000, an approximate 15% increase from current levels, by December 2025.
S&P 500’s base case for 2025
EliteOptionsTrader also outlined a base-case scenario in which the index continues grinding higher toward 6,400 in the coming weeks, followed by a sharp pullback to around 6,000.
That decline, he believes, would trap overconfident bulls and set the stage for months of consolidation between 6,000 and 6,300.
Eventually, the index would retake its highs and push into the 6,750 to 6,850 range before mounting a final breakout to 7,000 by year-end.
A more optimistic projection suggests the S&P 500 could break above 6,300 and rally to 6,500 within a matter of sessions, encountering minimal resistance. After a brief pause, the melt-up would continue, targeting the 6,800 to 7,000 range with strong momentum heading into the fourth quarter.
However, the road higher is not without potential setbacks. A more cautious outlook considers the possibility of the index stalling at 6,350, pulling back to 6,000, or even retesting 5,850 before recovering into year-end. In this scenario, the index could finish the year closer to 6,400, short of the 7,000 milestone.
Besides the technical outlook, Wall Street analysts have offered varied opinions about the index’s trajectory for the end of 2025.
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