Although gold slightly retraced on Monday, technical indicators suggest the precious metal is on track to reach another record high by the end of July.
This outlook is supported by gold’s position within a bullish ‘channel up’ formation on the daily chart, indicating sustained upward momentum, according to an analysis published by TradingShot on TradingView on June 16.
One key technical factor backing this view is the one-day moving average (MA), which has consistently acted as a dynamic support level.
The current price action closely mirrors a structure observed between December 19, 2024, and January 30, 2025, when the metal broke above a previous high and rallied toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, a common target during bullish breakouts.
If this pattern repeats, TradingShot expects a medium-term breakout that could increase prices significantly.
A confirmed breakout, especially if gold maintains strength above the MA50, could accelerate momentum toward the $3,700 mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above neutral, showing no signs of overbought conditions, supporting this bullish scenario.
This suggests further upside potential before the rally begins to lose steam. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA200), trending below $2,900, continues to provide long-term structural support for the metal.
Profit-taking stalls gold’s run
Despite a 0.39% dip to $3,401 as of press time, gold remains up nearly 30% year-to-date.
The current pullback likely reflects profit-taking after prices touched an eight-week high, fueled by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and anticipation of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Looking ahead, Bank of America projects gold could reach $4,000 within the next 12 months, driven by rising concerns over U.S. fiscal instability, interest rate uncertainty, and a weakening dollar, as reported by Finbold on June 15.
As markets continue to monitor the evolving Israel-Iran conflict and upcoming Fed decisions, these factors will likely shape gold’s trajectory as it attempts to reclaim the $3,500 high, and potentially push toward $3,700 and beyond.
Featured image via Shutterstock
