Following Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp drop on Monday, an analyst has pointed to technical indicators suggesting the asset could fall below the crucial $100,000 level.
According to TradingShot’s analysis, the maiden cryptocurrency is testing its 20-week moving average (MA) near $112,500, a level that has historically acted as a launchpad for the final leg of previous bull cycles.
In the analysis shared on TradingView on September 22, the analyst noted that based on historical data, whenever Bitcoin closed below the 1W MA20, the price tended to decline further until finding support at the 50-week MA.
Currently, the 1W MA50 sits just under $100,000, suggesting that a decisive weekly close beneath the 1W MA20 could trigger a correction to that level within two to three weeks. Based on prior cycles, TradingShot projects this move could materialize within that same timeframe.
The broader structure highlights the parabola of the ongoing 2023–2025 bull cycle, with higher highs forming along an ascending trajectory.
However, projections indicate a more complex pattern, with a significant test of the 1W MA50 likely around late January 2026. This timing aligns with cyclical tops and retracements observed in previous market phases.
If Bitcoin holds above the 1W MA20, the bullish outlook remains intact, with potential upside toward $130,000 in the near term. But if the trendline breaks, downside pressure could quickly drive the asset below six figures, setting up a deeper consolidation before the next rally.
Bitcoin price analysis
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $113,075, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours, though down 3.5% over the past week.
At the current price, Bitcoin is hovering just below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $114,614 but remains well above the 200-day SMA of $103,830.
This positioning suggests that the market is consolidating, with short-term momentum lagging behind the medium-term average, while the long-term trend remains firmly bullish.
Meanwhile, the asset’s 14-day RSI of 44.43 shows Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold, leaning toward the lower neutral zone, which reflects subdued buying pressure.
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