Bitcoin (BTC) could face renewed selling pressure following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who pointed to historical price declines following previous midterm votes.
With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, Martinez highlighted in a post on X that Bitcoin declined 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections.
While the historical pattern does not establish that elections caused those declines, Martinez nonetheless said that we are dealing with a trend worth monitoring as the 2026 election approaches.
“Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, BTC fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively. That does not prove elections caused the declines, but the pattern is worth watching ahead of November 3, 2026,” Martinez wrote.
At press time, September 29, the cryptocurrency was trading at $84,180, following a modest 0.55% 24-hour uptick.
Midterm elections Bitcoin price outlook
Making speculation even more complicated, Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance has also been mixed from a historical perspective. For example, it surged 391% in the fourth quarter of 2010, but fell 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022.
Accordingly, Martinez warned that the start of the fourth quarter could bring heightened volatility for Bitcoin investors. Specifically, should the post-midterm pattern repeat, the analyst predicted the $73,000 level could emerge as a potentially important area to watch.
“If this post-midterm pattern repeats, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 could become the key support zone. During confirmed bull markets, this level has often held through major corrections, potentially creating a buying opportunity if BTC pulls back,” he wrote.
This zone is important as it represents Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis and historically acted as support during confirmed bull markets. A day earlier, however, Martinez predicted a potential move toward the $100,000 region in the medium term if BTC holds above the $82,000 neckline.
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