So far, 2025 has been a mixed year for Nvidia, one of the world’s leading semiconductor companies. The chipmaker is, arguably, the business that capitalized the most on the most dominant narrative in the financial markets today — artificial intelligence (AI).
With that being said, it has become increasingly hard for the Jensen Huang-led venture to impress shareholders. The tech company held its last earnings call, covering Q3 FY 2025, on November 20. Since then, the upward momentum of Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) has stalled out.
In addition, late January saw the unexpected rise of DeepSeek — a Chinese AI startup that reportedly built and trained its competitive model at a fraction of the usual cost — and without access to Nvidia’s latest line of chips due to export controls. Nvidia stock subsequently crashed by 10.14%, down to a price of $128 per share, on January 27.
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By press time on February 20, the price of Nvidia stock had recovered to $139.22, bringing year-to-date (YTD) returns up to 3.74%.
Analysts generally maintained a highly bullish outlook, however — putting forward the thesis that demand is strong enough for successful coexistence and that widespread adoption would only serve to ultimately benefit Nvidia going forward.
Analysts bullish on Nvidia stock ahead of Q4 earnings
KeyBanc semiconductor researcher John Vinh, CFA, maintained an earlier ‘Overweight’ rating on February 20. In addition, he hiked his price target for Nvidia stock from $180 to $190. If met, Vinh’s forecast would equate to a 36.37% increase from current prices.
In a note shared with investors, the analyst highlighted that KeyBanc anticipates robust results from Nvidia’s Q4 FY 2025 report, due February 26. Vinh also expects to see conservative guidance that would nonetheless surpass consensus estimates.
Rick Schafer, an Oppenheimer semiconductor equity analyst, echoed many of the same sentiments. Schafer reiterated a prior ‘Outperform’ rating on NVDA stock and maintained a $175 price target, which implies a 25.61% upside compared to prices as of February 20.
The analyst also added that Oppenheimer expects to see a 40% increase in capital expenditures (CAPEX), up to $300 billion from last year’s $220 billion, from hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta.
Technical analysis supports a case for an NVDA surge to $190
In addition to Wall Street’s vote of confidence, noted technical analyst TradingShot also put forward a thesis based on technical analysis, which sees Nvidia shares reaching a price of $190 in the medium term.
According to the provided chart, the semiconductor stock’s price action has demonstrated a consistent chart pattern over the course of the last two years. In two separate instances, consolidation periods like the ones we’ve seen now have been followed by significant surges in Nvidia stock price after prices broke the trendline of lower highs.
In the first instance, Nvidia was recovering from the 2022 inflation crisis — so the resulting rally was stronger than anticipated due to macro factors. The last time the pattern played out, however, the price of NVDA stock increased by 68.69%.
Accordingly, the analyst expects that if price closes above the lower high trend line this time around, a similar rally will occur — which translates to a $190 price target.
Featured image via Shutterstock
