Shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) are flashing what an analyst has described as the worst type of bearish crossover, raising the risk of a sharp pullback toward the $200 level.
Insights from TradingShot, based on a TradingView post on March 4, indicate that Apple has crossed the 50-day moving average (MA) below the 100-day moving average on the daily chart. This bearish cross has historically formed near major tops and often preceded extended declines.
The signal follows the stock’s peak in December at the upper boundary of a four-year channel up pattern. The outlook notes that the previous two times Apple topped within this long-term rising channel, similar bearish crosses followed and triggered steep corrections.
In both instances, the declines extended below their respective 2.0 Fibonacci extension levels. During the most recent cycle in 2025, the selloff was deep enough to break beneath the one-month 50 moving average, a key long-term support indicator.
AAPL stock’s next low target
The newly projected 2.0 Fibonacci extension now stands at approximately $205. If the current setup evolves into a broader bear cycle similar to past patterns, the stock could decline toward that level. Such a move would likely coincide with another test of the one-month MA50, reinforcing the technical importance of the $200–$205 zone.
TradingShot’s outlook also points to weakening momentum following the December high, with price rolling over near channel resistance before the moving average crossover materialized.
Indeed, the technical warning comes as the technology giant announced several key product launches in recent days, including the affordable iPhone 17e starting at $599, featuring the A19 chip, a 48MP Fusion camera, 256GB of base storage, MagSafe support, and enhanced satellite connectivity.
Apple also refreshed its Mac lineup with a new MacBook Air powered by the M5 chip and updated MacBook Pro models equipped with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips for demanding professional workflows.
Despite positive product momentum, following a record fiscal Q1 2026 with $143.8 billion in revenue, AAPL has experienced a modest pullback. As of press time, the shares were trading at $263, down 2.6% year to date.
Wall Street bullish on AAPL
Overall, Apple continues to command a bullish outlook from Wall Street analysts, with the consensus pointing to further upside over the next 12 months.
According to data compiled by TipRanks, Apple holds a ‘Moderate Buy’ rating based on 26 analysts. Of those, 16 recommend buying the stock, nine suggest holding, and one advises selling.
The average 12-month price target stands at $307.16, implying potential upside of about 16.5% from the latest closing price. Targets range from a high of $350 to a low of $248.
Despite short-term fluctuations, the broader analyst consensus reflects confidence in the company’s earnings resilience, product ecosystem strength, and continued services growth.
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