Amid the ongoing bullish gold run, a banking giant has suggested the precious metal could hit the $5,000 mark within the next year.
Indeed, gold has been among the standout performers of 2025, gaining 66% year-to-date and trading at $4,371 as of press time.
UBS expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce by September 2026 after reassessing macroeconomic risks, interest rate expectations, and rising political uncertainty in the United States.
The bank lifted its target to $5,000 for the first three quarters of 2026 and now sees prices easing to about $4,800 by year-end, still well above its previous $4,300 forecast. UBS expects demand to strengthen through 2026, driven by low real yields, global economic fragility, U.S. fiscal pressures, and uncertainty tied to the midterm elections.
In a higher-risk scenario, UBS sees gold climbing to $5,400. Notably, the bank has steadily raised its outlook in recent months, lifting its mid-2026 target to $4,500 and its upside case to $4,900, while maintaining a downside view of $3,700.
“If political or financial risks increase, the gold price could climb to $5,400 per ounce (previously expected at $4,900 per ounce),” the strategists said.
Additionally, UBS stated that expectations of rate cuts, lower bond yields, and a weakening U.S. fiscal outlook are boosting demand from investors and central banks, with strong buying expected to persist into 2026.
The bank views recent price pullbacks as technical and temporary, noting that fundamentals remain intact as geopolitical and financial risks continue to support underlying demand.
Increasing global appetite for gold
At the same time, UBS data shows a firm global appetite for gold. Central banks have bought 634 metric tons so far this year, with purchases accelerating toward year-end and forecast to reach 900 to 950 metric tons in 2025.
Investor demand has also strengthened, reflected in 222 metric tons of ETF inflows and bar and coin demand above 300 metric tons for a fourth straight quarter, while jewelry demand has been more resilient than expected.
While UBS flags risks such as a more hawkish Federal Reserve and potential central bank sales, it maintained that investors remain underallocated to gold and continues to recommend a mid-single-digit portfolio allocation.
Featured image via Shutterstock
