Deutsche Bank has reaffirmed its bullish outlook for gold, maintaining a fourth-quarter 2026 forecast of $4,600 per ounce while estimating that the metal’s fair value could reach $4,700 per ounce by year-end.
The forecast comes as gold traded at $4,059 as of press time, having erased most of its 2026 gains. Year-to-date, the precious metal is down more than 6%.
Despite the pullback, Deutsche Bank believes the long-term uptrend remains intact, supported by strong central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
According to the bank’s latest analysis, gold remains in an explosive phase that began in August 2024. Deutsche Bank’s statistical models suggest the current cycle is one of only five similar episodes recorded since 1975.
While some valuation models indicate downside potential toward $2,600 per ounce, the bank considers that scenario unlikely. Instead, it believes gold likely found a bottom near $3,900 per ounce during its recent correction, rather than extending losses toward the model-implied $3,700 level.
Based on its fair value calculations, the banking giant expects gold to close the gap with underlying fundamentals and reach approximately $4,700 per ounce by the end of 2026, slightly above its official $4,600 fourth-quarter forecast.
Gold price catalysts
The bank’s outlook is supported by continued demand from central banks, which remain one of the strongest drivers of the gold market.
In this line, data from the World Gold Council showed a recovery in official-sector buying during the second quarter. Surveys indicate that nearly 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while about 45% plan to expand their own holdings.
At the same time, ongoing diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and rising government debt levels continue to support demand for gold as a reserve asset and inflation hedge.
At the same time, elevated prices have weighed on jewelry demand and limited interest from some Western ETF investors. Higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar have also created headwinds by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Wall Street’s gold price outlook
Meanwhile, the institution’s $4,600 gold price target places it among the more optimistic major banks, although several Wall Street firms remain bullish on the precious metal.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach around $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while UBS projects a rebound toward $5,200 per ounce over the next 12 months. JPMorgan recently lowered its outlook but still sees gold trading around $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter.
The broader consensus among analysts points to gold consolidating in the mid-to-high $4,000 range through late 2026, with potential for a move above $5,000 per ounce if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance, the U.S. dollar weakens, or geopolitical risks intensify.
