Summary
⚈ Worst-case estimate sees Nvidia falling to $76.25, a 32.72% drop from today.
⚈ Despite concerns, Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight rating and bullish long-term view.
Banking giant Piper Sandler has revised its outlook on Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) for the next 12 months.
In a departure from what Wall Street firms usually do, company analysts issued a range instead of a single price target.
After conducting a sensitivity analysis of the chipmaker’s data center revenue to determine the potential impacts that a slowdown in capital expenditures (CAPEX) could have, Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar believes that $9.8 billion on an annual basis — roughly 6.45% of the company’s data center revenue, could be at risk.
What’s more, that analysis already excludes revenue from China completely. Per the multinational investment bank, the worst-case scenario could see a $0.40 hit to earnings per share (EPS) — and at a 25x trough multiple that Piper Sandler applies to reach its price targets, this leads to a price target of just $76.25 for Nvidia stock.
For reference, at press time on May 5, NVDA shares were changing hands at $113.34, having marked a 15.6% decline since the start of the year. Accordingly, the worst-case scenario per Piper Sandler would equate to a 32.72% drop from current prices.
However, it’s important to remember that we’re still discussing one specific scenario here — on the whole, the banking giant remains bullish on Nvidia stock.
Piper Sandler reiterates bullish price target on Nvidia stock
With the risks noted, the banking giant reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating on NVDA stock, equivalent to a Strong Buy. Per the firm’s best-case scenario, and once again utilizing a 25x multiple, Nvidia stock could reach a price of $126.75.
If such a move to the upside were to come to fruition, it would represent an 11.83% surge from current prices. While the fact that Piper Sandler has remained bullish shouldn’t be discounted, readers should note the large disparity in upside/downside between the best-case and worst-case scenario the firm has laid out.
In addition, this was quite the price target cut — Piper Sandler’s earlier coverage came with a $150 12-month price forecast, which would equate to a 32.34% rally compared to current prices
While analysts have maintained bullish outlooks, there’s a noticeable trend of cutting price targets. The change in sentiment isn’t limited to Wall Street — as the short ratio of Nvidia stock has recently reached a 2-week high.
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