Summary:
⚈ UBS maintained ‘buy’ rating but cut price target from $180 to $175
⚈ Analysts may resume upgrades if trade talks fuel sustained bullish momentum
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock was swept upward in the wide Monday pre-market rally, soaring 4.41% ahead of the May 12, 2025, morning bell from its latest closing price of $116.65 to $121.80.
The positivity was not lost on UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri, who, during the extended session, reaffirmed his previous ‘buy’ rating for NVDA shares.
Interestingly, despite the bullish recommendation and the sharp rally, the banking giant continued its previous trend of lowering the Nvidia stock price target. Up until April 17, 2025, UBS was on a nearly unbroken forecast-raising streak since 2022, with only one departure from the trend on February 22, 2024.
In mid-April, however, the Swiss multinational investment bank first reduced its prediction for NVDA shares from $185 to $180 and, on May 12, it reduced it further to $175 despite the ‘buy’ rating and despite the bullish tide sweeping U.S. equities in the day’s pre-market.
How Nvidia stock’s 2025 performance justifies the PT reduction
Nvidia’s 2025 performance offers some insights into the emerging pattern of price target revisions. Despite its strengths, the latest rally leaves NVDA equity far from its still-recent intraday highs above $150.
In fact, the semiconductor giant would have to rally 23.15% just to reclaim the intraday levels it held on January 6 and January 7, making the $175 price point a reasonable target for the coming 12 months.
Why analysts will likely start raising NVDA stock PTs again soon
Despite the lackluster performance in 2025 compared to 2024, the latest developments have opened the possibility that future revisions issued by UBS – and by other major analysis firms – will again feature price forecast upgrades.
The Monday pre-market rally can almost entirely be attributed to the results of the trade talks held between China and the U.S. in Switzerland. By press time, the discussions had yielded impressive results, as they ensured the majority of the tariffs would be postponed for at least 90 days.
Considering the impact the height of the duties and the trade war uncertainty have had on Nvidia shares and the stocks of most other companies, a bull market akin to 2024 could be rekindled in 2025 should the two countries build on the latest discussions.
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