With an 18% year-to-date gain, 2025 has been an overall success for the S&P 500, and the Wall Street market forecasts for 2026 are accordingly robust as well.

According to data published by Leverage Shares on Friday, December 26, major banks are issuing bullish takes for the year ahead. The most notable is Deutsche Bank, which sees a 16% upside, followed by Morgan Stanley’s +13%.

Also optimistic are UBS, which expects the S&P 500 to grow another 10%, Société Générale, which sees it going up 9%, and Bank of America, with its 6% growth prediction.

Weighing on the figures, analyst Shay Boloor points to the monetization phase of a rebuilt digital industrial base as a key driver.

In other words, the growth will funnel capital into leading tech giants, including Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Meta (NASDAQ: META), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Will the S&P 500 really explode?

While the above-mentioned bets do inspire confidence, it must be noted that not all market experts are of the same opinion.

For instance, Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO, predicts muted returns for the S&P 500 in 2026, citing the heavy concentration of expensive AI stocks. 

Speaking for Business Insider earlier today, the stock veteran stated that he expects a market rotation, with investors shifting away from the big AI names such as those mentioned by Boloor. Rather, they will turn toward cheaper sectors.

“Our best guess is that in 2026 the S&P is more likely to be down than up. We are not forecasting a collapse, because we expect what we’re going to see, to a significant degree, is a rotation — that the AI names will get hit, and they are of course a big part of the S&P,” Inker said.

Wall Street stock market forecasts for 2026 are thus broadly bullish, but some outliers suggest a more balanced takeaway might not be amiss. 

Featured image via Shutterstock