Technical indicators are signaling the risk of a sustained Bitcoin (BTC) drop in the coming days as the asset struggles to hold the $60,000 support level.
In this context, Bitcoin is on the verge of printing a major bearish signal on the three-day chart, with a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) projected to occur around February 27, according to insights from Ali Martinez.
In an X post on February 24, the analyst noted that the setup follows a prolonged decline that began with Bitcoin’s peak in October 2025.
Since then, the cryptocurrency has dropped more than 52%, falling from above $110,000 to around $68,000. The sell-off has intensified recently, with the price breaking below both the 50 and 200 SMAs as downside momentum strengthens.
On the three-day chart, the 50 SMA is sloping downward and nearing the 200 SMA, signaling that bearish momentum has overtaken the broader trend. If confirmed in the coming days, it would mark the first death cross of this cycle on the higher timeframe.
Historical impact of death cross on BTC
Historically, similar setups have preceded the final capitulation phase of bear markets. In 2013, Bitcoin had already fallen over 70% before the cross, followed by another roughly 50% decline.
A similar pattern unfolded after the 2017 peak and again in 2021, when the death cross appeared after a steep sell-off and preceded the final leg down into the macro bottom.
According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s structure mirrors prior cycles, with the asset already down more than 50% from its October 2025 peak.
Now, the looming death cross suggests selling pressure may persist. Historically, comparable setups have preceded the final leg lower, implying a potential 30% drop toward $40,000 or, in a deeper move, 50% toward $30,000.
While not a guarantee, past cycles show the death cross often aligns with the last major downswing before a macro bottom forms.
Bitcoin drops further below $65,000
Meanwhile, Bitcoin extended losses Tuesday, slipping further below $65,000. By press time, BTC was trading at $63,158, down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeframe, the asset has fallen more than 6%.
The decline is largely tied to renewed U.S. trade policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump. After a Supreme Court ruling curtailed earlier tariff powers, Trump introduced and later raised a new global import tariff to 15%, stoking fears of trade disruption, slower growth, and higher inflation.
The move triggered broad risk-off sentiment, pushing investors out of volatile assets like cryptocurrencies and into traditional safe havens such as gold.
Analysts view the sell-off as tactical de-risking rather than outright capitulation, driven by leverage unwinds, sustained ETF outflows, and cascading liquidations.
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