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Bitcoin declines 44% since last U.S. Independence Day; What’s next for BTC?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below $20,000, crashing to new yearly lows while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to remain subdued. 

On Monday, July 4, the flagship cryptocurrency held its position slightly above $19,000 after remaining consolidated over the last seven days. By press time, the asset was trading at $19,600 with slight gains of over 3% in the 24 hours. 

Bitcoin’s current price is a shadow of the crypto’s performance over the past year. Notably, since the last independence day on July 4, 2021, Bitcoin was trading at $35,287, translating to a drop of about 44% compared to the current price. 

Bitcoin one-year price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

What next for Bitcoin 

The crypto market is now focusing on Bitcoin’s next price action, especially with the asset trading below the 200-week moving average. Notably, previous instances of asset trading below this level have marked the end of the bear phase before triggering a rally. 

According to crypto trading expert, Michaël van de Poppe, with the market conditions, determining whether Bitcoin has hit a bottom is near impossible but technicals indicate the position is around the corner. 

The trading expert noted that sentiments around Bitcoin are bullish, especially with the potential for wide-scale adoption and the possibility of slowing inflation. 

Poppe notes that if Bitcoin retests back to around $12,000 or $13,000, it will be the ultimate level for the asset’s bottoming. However, he ruled out the chances of the asset dropping to the $10,000 level but warned that it is crucial for Bitcoin to sustain its value above $16,000 to avoid further downward momentum. 

Bitcoin’s potential to rally

Furthermore, Poppe highlighted that for Bitcoin to rally, it is important to break through the $20,200 level since it will likely sweep all the recent highs and continue to $21,000. Overall, the market analyst believes that Bitcoin’s prospects rely on beating the level. 

“If we crack above $21,000, the run towards $29,000 seems likely to be taking place in which, we could be getting above the 200-week MA, and that is resulting in us probably getting a retest of 200-week MA and then further upwards momentum,” he said

Finally, in June, Bitcoin experienced a steep decline characterised by a bearish momentum. Consequently, the price movement resulted in Bitcoin recording its worst quarter ever, losing value by over 56%.  

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