Although Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to recover from the recent downturn, a strategist is warning that the flagship digital currency could face sustained downward pressure into December.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000, citing a confluence of macro forces, he said in an X post on November 28.
In outlining his outlook, McGlone noted that Bitcoin’s slide relative to gold has accelerated, reinforcing a structural shift toward defensive positioning.
With gold breaking record highs and absorbing haven flows, Bitcoin’s weakening performance against the metal has amplified downside momentum, raising the probability of a retest of its long-term $50,000 pivot, and potentially much worse if current trends persist.
A key concern is the backdrop of compressed stock-market volatility and a broad risk-off rotation. The strategist noted that equity markets have remained relatively calm, but he warns this tranquility may be masking deeper cracks.
His analysis shows that historically, the S&P 500 often follows Bitcoin when it drops below its 50-week moving average (MA). Currently, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 sit beneath these key trendlines, signaling rising risk across major assets.
Past breaks, like in 2018, during the 2020 pandemic, and in 2022’s bear market, saw equities soon mirror Bitcoin’s decline, suggesting the current alignment could again drag stocks lower.
Adding pressure is what the strategist calls the “unlimited supply” of crypto competitors, which continues to dilute market share and soften Bitcoin’s dominance during periods of stress.
Combined with mean-reversion forces and deteriorating liquidity conditions, the environment resembles past deflationary phases in which Bitcoin suffered deep retracements.
Bitcoin price analysis
Indeed, McGlone’s warning comes as Bitcoin reclaimed the $90,000 resistance, which has now turned into a fragile support zone. By press time, the cryptocurrency was trading at $91,415, up almost 1% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, the asset has rallied 6%.
Despite these gains, Bitcoin’s technical structure leans bearish. The 50-day SMA sits at $103,001 and the 200-day SMA at $104,439, placing the current price well below both key trend markers.
This alignment confirms a sustained loss of upward momentum and reinforces a broader downtrend, as traders typically view prices trading beneath both SMAs as a sign that sellers remain in control.
The 14-day RSI stands at 40.50, hovering in neutral territory but leaning toward weakness. While not yet in oversold conditions, the RSI suggests demand is insufficient to counter the current bearish structure.
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