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Bitcoin halving shakeout: 3 stages to watch ahead of parabolic breakout

Bitcoin halving shakeout: 3 stages to watch ahead of parabolic breakout

Bitcoin (BTC) surprised investors after dropping to as low as $65,000 in the last 24 hours amid the ongoing short-term market sell-off. The sudden price drop has seen Bitcoin encounter significant resistance at $68,000, barely a week before the halving event.

In line with this development, crypto trading analyst Rekt Capital, in an X (formerly Twitter) post on April 12, identified three stages revolving around the halving event that can help investors capitalize for maximum profits.

Final pre-halving retrace

According to the analyst, this first level has already occurred, characterized by a downturn in Bitcoin’s price as investors adjust their positions ahead of the halving event. The analyst pointed out that the retracement amounted to a mere 18%, starkly contrasting previous retracements observed in 2016 and 2020. 

“This pre-halving retrace was -18% deep whereas in 2016 it was -38% and in 2020 it was -19% deep. This pre-halving retrace was the final bargain-buying opportunity in the Pre-Halving period,” the expert said. 

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView/RektCapital

Re-accumulation phase

With the retrace already occurring, Bitcoin has entered the re-accumulation phase. This stage is characterized by sideways price movement, setting up a foundation for the next leg of growth. 

According to the specialist, this re-accumulation process usually takes a few weeks, sometimes 150 days or even more. He believes that investors might become impatient during this time because nothing is happening regarding price changes, and they may be bored and anxious.

“The goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways, going into the halving and beyond. <…> Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the halving,

Parabolic uptrend

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation range, it embarks on an accelerated growth trajectory as bullish sentiments set in. According to the analysis, historically, this phase has lasted over a year. However, Rekt Capital suggested that this timeframe could be significantly shortened with the potential for an accelerated cycle in the current market.

It’s worth noting that the change in this timeframe can be partially deduced from the recent Bitcoin all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to reach a record high after the halving event. However, Bitcoin peaked above $73,000 in the current cycle before the event.

The general market impact of the exchange-traded fund (ETF), launched in the US in January, could also change this timeline. 

Overall, Bitcoin has been consolidating above $67,000, hoping to find a direction to push it towards $68,000. By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,544.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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