Despite forming a traditionally bearish technical pattern, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be setting the stage for a new record high, which could see the asset rally by about 80%.
Specifically, prominent online trading analyst TradingShot observed that on April 4, Bitcoin completed a one-day death cross, where the 50-day moving average (MA) crossed below the 200-day MA.
While this is often seen as a negative signal, during the ongoing 2023 to 2025 bull cycle, this pattern has instead preceded major rallies, acting as a powerful buy signal, he said in a TradingView post on April 4.
According to the expert, the bullish outlook can be deduced from the broader trend Bitcoin has followed since bottoming out in November 2022, known as a ‘channel up,’ a rising price structure marked by a sequence of higher lows.
Each time Bitcoin nears the lower boundary of its channel, a one-day death cross and a Bollinger Bands (BB) squeeze appear, signaling low volatility and often preceding sharp price moves.
Bitcoin’s transition month
These signals have appeared annually in what TradingShot dubs a “transition month,” a turning point when Bitcoin shifts from a local bottom into a new bullish phase. Previous transition months include December 2022, September 2023, and August 2024. Now, April seems to be playing that role in 2025.
Each transition month has historically led to at least 100% gains from the bottom. If the March 10 retest marks the new base, Bitcoin could be on a path toward $150,000.
“As far as the next leg up in concerned, all 3 previous Bullish Legs rose by at least +100% from the bottom. Since March 10 was the close test of the 1W MA50, we can consider that the bottom from which to measure the +100% leg up. That suggests that BTC will hit at least $150000 on the next top,” the expert said.
Bitcoin’s next major resistance
For Bitcoin to target $150,000, it must first overcome several short-term resistance levels. To this end, on April 5, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez noted on X that Bitcoin’s key barrier lies at the $87,000 mark.
At this level, three major technical indicators converge: the 50-day MA, the 200-day MA, and a long-standing descending trendline from Bitcoin’s all-time high.
The 50-day MA reflects short- to mid-term momentum, while the 200-day MA indicates the broader trend. When both align with a descending trendline, signaling sustained downward pressure, it marks a critical battleground for bulls and bears.
A breakout above this zone could shift market sentiment and pave the way for higher prices, while rejection may confirm ongoing bearish momentum.
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin recovered to nearly $84,000 on Friday after falling below $81,500 the day before, shaken by President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. The move triggered a broader market selloff, intensified by China’s swift retaliation.
While equities struggled, Bitcoin continues to show resilience. Still, the cryptocurrency has largely hovered between $80,000 and $90,000 over the past month, with traders watching global markets for direction in the absence of major crypto-specific developments.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin was trading at $83,682 by press time, gaining a modest 1% in the last 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, the maiden digital asset is up 0.21%.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current market sentiment is bearish, reinforced by a low Fear & Greed Index score of 26, indicating fear among investors.
Additionally, at the current price, Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $89,357 and the 200-day SMA of $84,704, hinting at more short—and long-term losses.
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