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Bitcoin on the cusp of confirming key breakdown; How low can BTC go?

Bitcoin on the cusp of confirming key breakdown; How low can BTC go?

Bitcoin (BTC) is presently grappling with maintaining its price above the $60,000 threshold amidst persistent sell-offs across the broader market. 

Indeed, some players within the market speculate that Bitcoin may face further devaluation leading up to the halving event. For instance, market strategist Gareth Solway suggested on April 16 that geopolitical tensions served as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price to breach a significant support trend line, which had been pivotal in propelling the cryptocurrency’s upward trajectory since February.

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView

Soloway emphasized that the breakdown remains unconfirmed while the support trend line has been breached. He explained this concept using probability, indicating that when Bitcoin was trading above the key trend line, the further upside was favored by approximately 75%. 

However, with the line now broken, probabilities have shifted to a more neutral 50/50 stance. Should Bitcoin confirm its descent below Saturday’s lows of $61,300, the likelihood of further downside becomes significantly higher, potentially reaching as high as 75%.

How low can Bitcoin drop?

Looking ahead, Soloway outlined potential downside targets should Bitcoin confirm its breakdown. 

“With the stock market beginning to deteriorate, investors need to be on high alert. There is no doubt Bitcoin is a risk asset. This means Bitcoin falls when fear grip investors. <…> Should Bitcoin confirm the breakdown, downside target becomes $52,000-$49,000,” he said. 

In alignment with Soloway’s forecast, Finbold reported that crypto analyst Ali Martinez observed Bitcoin’s consolidation phase and advised investors to closely monitor the $61,000 support level, with $72,400 identified as the primary resistance level.

As the current situation stands, Bitcoin’s potential for a significant upward surge largely hinges on its ability to reclaim the $65,000 resistance zone. 

Meanwhile, investors are anticipating the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is slated to reduce the new supply of the token by half. Historically, the halving event has acted as a positive catalyst for prices. 

However, doubts have arisen regarding the likelihood of a repeat performance, especially considering that Bitcoin recently reached a record high, before the event. 

Bitcoin price analysis 

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $62,270, marking a correction of over 1% in the last 24 hours. On the weekly chart, BTC is showing a decline of 8%.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Overall, recent short-term price movements have placed a critical responsibility on Bitcoin bulls to maintain the price above $60,000. A drop below this crucial level would signify a potential downward trajectory for the cryptocurrency.

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