Bitcoin (BTC) is widely expected to enjoy a strong 2025, with the majority of price targets for the year starting at an already-high $150,000 and moving higher across $220,000, $350,000, and beyond from there, with the most optimistic models even forecasting a climb above $800,000.
However, BTC’s actual performance in the first 40-odd days has failed to toe the bullish line. The world’s premier cryptocurrency, with its press time price of $97,113, is a relatively minor 3.46% in the green year-to-date (YTD) – less than traditionally slow-moving assets like gold, which is up 11.55% in the same timeframe, or the S&P 500 benchmark index, which has rallied 4.20%.
Still, the lack of a clear boom isn’t indicative of a bust, and Bitcoin has, so far, managed to find a relatively strong footing above $95,000, with the dips below the important level being both few and short-lived.
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Here’s how Bitcoin performed in past Februaries
Given the uncertain situation, Finbold turned to history to try and determine where the coin might land on February 28 and examined the historical monthly returns of the cryptocurrency, as made possible by the data available via data analytics platform CryptoRank.
In an average February since 2011, Bitcoin has appreciated 15.2%, while the best second month on record – which occurred in 2011 – saw a 65.2% rally.
February 2025, though barely at its mid-point, is, unfortunately, shaping up to be red, meaning that looking at the worst such month to date – February 2014 – might make more sense despite being somewhat dramatic as it saw a 33.7% plunge.
Here’s where Bitcoin might go if it matches historical performance
Still, considering first the average monthly returns and the fact BTC started the month at $100,674, it might rise to $115,976, indicating the full bull market has returned.
Should the positive momentum turn into a proper breakout and Bitcoin’s rally is comparable to February 2011, it could land at $166,313 while matching the success of last February – the third-best on record – it could soar a total of 44% in the 28 days and climb to $144,970.
On the other hand, should there be a bearish breakout and BTC comes close to matching its worst February on record, it could fall as low as $66,746.
Finally, the fact that even should Bitcoin experience a historically poor 33.7% plunge, it would fall only to a value that has been the coin’s all-time high (ATH) for multiple years does much to show just how strong the cryptocurrency’s performance in 2024 has been.
Featured image via Shutterstock
