Bitcoin’s (BTC) new bearish sentiment and historical price movement suggest that the maiden cryptocurrency may be entering a fresh downturn cycle.
This outlook, shared by prominent online cryptocurrency analyst TradingShot in a TradingView post on November 11, came as Bitcoin slipped below the $110,000 mark.
Analysis of weekly price charts shows that Bitcoin has been testing the crucial 50-week moving average (MA), a historically decisive level in cycle shifts. A sustained close below this indicator has previously triggered deeper corrections.
The analyst noted that in 2021, Bitcoin peaked roughly seven weeks before U.S. equities, and a similar divergence appears to be unfolding again, with the S&P 500 setting new record highs while BTC retreats.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin topped earlier this year near $120,000 and has since formed lower highs and declining RSI peaks, mirroring the setup seen ahead of the 2022 breakdown.
TradingShot’s cycle mapping further highlighted a repeating market rotation pattern: the last bull cycle ended with capital flowing out of crypto and into equities, with stocks peaking shortly after Bitcoin. The current setup shows a similar lag, suggesting equities could top out toward late November if the timeline holds.
Bitcoin’s next target
If Bitcoin decisively loses the 1-week 50-MA, technical projections point to a possible retest of the 1-week 100-MA near the mid-$80,000 zone and a prolonged consolidation range between these two trend lines.
In the previous cycle, that phase preceded an eventual capitulation move toward the 1-month 100-MA, currently far lower, signaling potential downside risk if the pattern repeats.
This bearish outlook comes as Bitcoin briefly fell below the $100,000 level, hitting its lowest price since late June amid a broad crypto-market correction.
The sell-off follows the Federal Reserve’s unexpectedly hawkish stance last week, which dampened hopes for an interest-rate cut in December. Bitcoin’s weakness has frustrated investors, especially as it coincides with record highs in equities and, until recently, gold.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $101,850, down almost 2% in the past 24 hours and 10% lower on the week.
As it stands, Bitcoin’s main challenge is to survive and maintain a price above $100,000 to minimize the risk of renewed declines.
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