Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, suggested in an X post on November 29 that Bloomberg is maintaining their stance on the 90% probability of approval by January 10, which has been their position for months, even before it gained popularity and became widely accepted.
“People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates.”posted Balchunas
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Despite a recent slowdown in its upward momentum, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to maintain a position above the significant psychological threshold of $37,000. Several indicators point towards a robust likelihood that the crypto asset might not drop below $35,000 mark again, and the approval of the ETFs is one of them.
The chance of rejection is slim
When asked in the comments about the possibility of all ETFs being rejected, Balchunas said: “Long shot.”
He emphasized the extensive involvement of numerous people working on the ETFs, suggesting that the denial is unlikely.
The analyst’s implication is that approval appears inevitable, and the key consideration shifts from whether it will happen to when it will occur.
“But the important thing that gets lost in the debates over exact dates and comments and timeline is the SEC and issuers are working hard behind the scenes to get these ETFs ready to go THIS CYCLE,” he added in the comments.
Fifty Pawlow, another markets and crypto analyst, shared his concerns about Bloomberg being wrong about their assumptions this year yet doubling down on the 90% prediction.
His comment was written an hour after the senior ETF analyst’s post went live, but it was not addressed at the time of writing.
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