ChatGPT has projected that SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) could rise to $128 after its August 4 earnings report, implying upside of about 18% from current levels.
The AI model also forecasts the stock could trade between $135 and $145 by the end of August if the company delivers solid results and avoids major negative surprises.
The forecast comes ahead of SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings release as a public company, a key event that could determine whether the stock can recover from its post-IPO slump.
According to the analysis, the most likely outcome is a modest rally supported by Starlink growth, improving sentiment, and lowered investor expectations following recent weakness.
ChatGPT’s base case assumes SpaceX meets revenue expectations while continuing to invest heavily in AI infrastructure and Starship development.
Under that scenario, shares could trade between $105 and $125 immediately after earnings before moving toward the $128 target by August 11.
In a more bullish outcome, stronger-than-expected revenue, accelerating Starlink subscriber growth, positive guidance, and signs of improving returns from AI investments could push the stock into a range of $130 to $150.
Conversely, a revenue miss, weaker guidance, or larger-than-expected losses could send shares down to between $80 and $100.
Notably, the earnings report will provide investors with their first detailed look at SpaceX’s financial performance since its June 2026 public listing.
SpaceX earnings expectations
However, Wall Street expectations remain unusually wide, reflecting uncertainty around the company’s valuation and long-term growth prospects.
Analysts currently forecast earnings per share ranging from a loss of $1.26 to a profit of $0.33, while full-year revenue estimates generally fall between $34 billion and $43 billion.
Much of the focus will be on Starlink, which is expected to remain the company’s primary profit driver.
Analysts project Connectivity segment operating margins of about 35.9%, while third-quarter Connectivity revenue is expected to exceed $4.7 billion, representing growth of more than 50% year-over-year.
Investors will also be watching AI infrastructure spending, launch business profitability, and management’s outlook for the second half of 2026.
SpaceX post-IPO struggles
SpaceX shares have struggled since reaching post-IPO highs as investors reassessed the company’s valuation. The company briefly surpassed a $2 trillion market capitalization after listing, but some valuation experts have argued that its fundamentals do not yet support those levels.
SpaceX has also been pressured by weakness across AI-related stocks and concerns over an upcoming lockup expiration that could add billions of dollars worth of shares to the market.
Despite those risks, ChatGPT remains constructive on the stock. The analysis points to continued Starlink growth, a recent $1.6 billion U.S. Space Force contract, and lower investor expectations following the stock’s decline, factors that could help SpaceX exceed market forecasts.
