The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO is now scheduled for June 12, 2026, with a targeted valuation of around $2 trillion, which is set to position founder Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire.
As the listing approaches, investors are closely watching whether Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Musk’s most profitable company, could also benefit from the SpaceX debut.
After all, Musk’s announcements, ranging from posts on X to official strategic updates, have historically triggered sharp moves in Tesla. In fact, at the time of writing, May 21, Tesla shares are already reacting to the announcement, rising more than 1% in pre-market trading.
However, while the excitement around the IPO is undeniable, extreme SpaceX valuation remains controversial, and it’s virtually impossible to know where Tesla shares might land on June 12.
Still, general predictions based on analyst commentaries, current price action, and ongoing stock market trends are possible. Accordingly, we’ve asked OpenAI’s leading AI mode, ChatGPT, to predict the Tesla stock price target after the SpaceX IPO.
ChatGPT predicts Tesla stock price after SpaceX IPO
As part of its analysis, ChatGPT presented three different scenarios. In congruence with the general market hype, the least likely scenario, the AI argued, is the bear-case one. This outcome would see Tesla shares dropping 20% and trading in the $330–$350 range. For this to happen, notable capital would have to leave Tesla and go into SpaceX, with the market being generally displeased with the launch.
A strong bull case is 15% more likely, and it would lead to a rally of anywhere between 15% and 30%. As a result, Tesla shares would change hands at $480–$540, driven by ‘mania’ boosting Musk’s entire business ecosystem.
The most likely scenario, however, to which ChatGPT assigns a 45% probability, would end with the automaker’s stock either slipping 5% or surging 10%. That is, the stock would land somewhere in the $395–$460 zone. Curiously, this scenario assumes some capital rotation into SpaceX and a mixed public reaction.
Pressed to reach a narrower conclusion and offer a specific price target, the chatbot argued that Tesla stock is most likely to hit $445 on June 12. Elaborating on the figure, the algorithm argued it offered a ‘first-order sentiment shock’ scenario, which is enough to price in the IPO hype and lead to a 6–7% rally but not enough to make the most optimistic investor dreams come true.
Tesla price outlook
Overall, TSLA’s reaction to SpaceX going public will depend on whether investor enthusiasm translates into sustained demand or a brief, hype-driven spike, which would likely be followed by normalization.
Machine learning algorithms argue the former is much more likely, with a 6–7% rally being the most the market can hope for. Still, ChatGPT still sees a 35% chance of an explosive rally of up to 30%, meaning that investors could very well be up for a surprise next month.
Featured image via Shutterstock
