While most markets struggled with volatility amid global economic uncertainty, gold maintained its steady climb. The world’s most valuable commodity by market cap hit a fresh all-time high (ATH) this week and is now up 10% year-to-date (YTD), trading at $2,900 at press time.
While trade tensions remain a key catalyst for gold’s surge, broader macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and weakening U.S. consumer sentiment, are also shaping its trajectory.
With analysts widely projecting a path toward $3,000, Finbold turned to ChatGPT to assess where gold could be headed by March 2025.
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ChatGPT identifies the major Gold price drivers
When prompted, the AI model examined gold’s performance and the factors influencing its recent surge, highlighting the elements that could drive prices in the near term.
The AI model identifies escalating trade tensions as a key driver behind gold’s rally, with U.S. President Donald Trump moving forward with tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports.
The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates also remains a critical factor in gold’s trajectory. While inflation remains high, the central bank’s upcoming decisions, particularly in response to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, will shape market expectations.
The AI model also identified a weaker U.S. dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since December 10, as another key driver supporting gold
U.S. Treasury yields have also dipped, with the 10-year yield at 4.28% and the 2-year yield at 4.08%. Since lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, the metal becomes a more attractive investment.
ChatGPT sets Gold price target for March 2025
Based on these factors, ChatGPT projects $3,000 as a reasonable price target for gold by the end of the first quarter of 2025, aligning with long-standing forecasts.
In a base case scenario, the AI model expects gold to trade between $2,950 and $3,000, driven by ongoing trade tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar. That being said, this forecast suggests just a 3.5% upside from the current price, which is highly plausible given the macroeconomic landscape provides a solid price floor.
However, without fresh catalysts, a decisive move beyond $3,000 may prove difficult. In a bearish case, if economic conditions stabilize, inflation cools, and investors pivot toward riskier assets like equities, gold could continue to trade range bound between $2,900 and $2,950.
Featured image via Shutterstock
