Amid the ongoing XRP price correction, artificial intelligence model ChatGPT has outlined the probability of the token declining sharply to the $0.50 level.
Although the asset has fallen below major support levels, the model described a move to $0.50 as a low-probability tail-risk scenario under current conditions.
With XRP trading at $1.40, a drop to $0.50 would represent a decline of roughly 65%. According to the model’s assessment, such a steep fall is not unprecedented in cryptocurrency markets, but it would typically require a significant negative catalyst.
In the short term, defined as the next one to three months, ChatGPT estimated the probability of XRP falling to $0.50 at around 5%.
A move of that magnitude over a compressed timeframe would likely require a broad-based crypto market crash, potentially triggered by a sharp collapse in Bitcoin (BTC), a severe regulatory shock targeting XRP, or a major liquidity crisis such as an exchange failure or systemic panic.
Impact of crypo volatility
Looking further out, the model placed the medium-term probability over a six- to twelve-month horizon at approximately 12% to 15%. The higher estimate reflects the compounding nature of crypto volatility over time, the potential for macroeconomic risk events, and the possibility that extended bear markets could produce deep retracements.
Even so, ChatGPT suggested that markets often establish support levels before extreme drawdowns materialize, unless investor sentiment deteriorates sharply.
For XRP to reach $0.50, it would likely need to break through multiple major support zones while the broader market structure turns decisively bearish.
Notably, XRP has declined sharply in 2026, tracking a broader crypto market pullback that saw Bitcoin fall below $70,000, triggering over $2 billion in liquidations and heavy losses in leveraged XRP positions.
The sell-off was fueled by slowing inflows into spot XRP ETFs, persistent macroeconomic pressure from high interest rates and inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions.
XRP price analysis
As of press time, XRP was trading at $1.42, and the broader technical backdrop remains weak.
The token is trading well below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.78 and its 200-day simple moving average of $2.31, signaling sustained downward momentum across medium- and long-term timeframes.
Although the 14-day RSI stands at 42.06, indicating neutral rather than oversold conditions, the lack of strong buying pressure suggests limited near-term rebound momentum.
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