Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) may be nearing a seasonal inflection point, with long-term data suggesting investors positioning ahead of March could benefit from a historically strong three-month stretch.
A 22-year seasonality breakdown of GOOGL shows a clear pattern in monthly win rates. January posts a strong 77% positive rate, while February drops sharply to 36%, making it one of the weakest months of the year. However, February’s softness has often marked a transition rather than the start of deeper declines.
According to insights by charting platform TrendSpider, win rates improve from there, with March at 57%, April rising to 62%, and May strengthening to 67%. This steady climb supports the broader trend of stronger performance into spring, with April delivering an average gain of 3.9% over the past two decades.
At the same time, June records a 48% win rate, July rebounds to 71%, August eases to 48%, and September stands at 64%. October is another standout at 73%, followed by November at 64% and December at 68%.
It is worth noting that seasonality is not a guarantee of future returns, but over 22 years, it reveals a consistent tendency for performance to strengthen after February. Therefore, buying Google stock before March positions investors ahead of one of its most reliable seasonal windows.
Notably, across 2026, GOOGL stock has had a volatile run, slipping by about 0.1% year to date. However, in the Friday session, Alphabet showed strength, climbing approximately 4% to close at $314, with after-hours trading holding steady around $315. The move marked one of the company’s strongest single-day gains in recent months.
The rally followed Google’s rollout of the Gemini 3.1 Pro model in enterprise preview and a new AI partnership with Sea Ltd. for enhanced shopping agents. These announcements strengthened Alphabet’s accelerating push into generative AI, bolstering confidence in its competitive edge against rivals.
Wall Street bullish on Google stocks
Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts at TipRanks have assigned the stock a ‘Strong Buy’ rating.
According to data compiled from 33 analysts, 26 rate the shares a buy, seven recommend holding, and none suggest selling. The average 12-month price target stands at $381.74, implying a 21.19% upside. Analysts’ projections range from a low estimate of $305 to a high target of $450.
Optimism centers on robust Google Cloud growth, with recent quarters showing 48% year-over-year increases, and AI monetization potential, despite heavy 2026 capital expenditures projected at $175–$185 billion to expand infrastructure.
While near-term margin pressure from CapEx spending has sparked some caution, investors view Alphabet’s integrated AI ecosystem, including custom TPUs, Search dominance, and YouTube, as positioning it well for long-term gains in the AI era.
Featured image via Shutterstock
