Following a dry spell last year, the release of Dune: Part Two has brought a significant surge in ticket sales to the US box office, offering a promising revival opportunity for the largest movie theater chain, AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC), and its stock.
The film, produced by Warner Bros. (NASDAQ: WBD) and Legendary Entertainment, debuted with an estimated $81.5 million in US box office revenue and approximately $100 million internationally, totaling around $182 million for its opening weekend. This marks the highest opening weekend revenue for any film released in 2024 thus far.
Could this big opening weekend act as a kickstart for AMC stock?
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Already surprising AMC revenue could be aided by Dune
The theater giant AMC Entertainment announced a fourth-quarter revenue of $1.1 billion, indicating a 12% year-over-year increase, which surpassed the Street consensus estimate of $1.05 billion. The company’s earnings surprise stood at 22.86%, having exceeded consensus EPS estimates in the past four quarters.
AMC recorded a revenue of $4.81 billion for the full fiscal year, marking a 23% year-over-year rise. Additionally, the company reported a full-year EBITDA of $425.8 million.
The success of concert movies featuring Beyoncé and Taylor Swift significantly contributed to AMC’s fourth-quarter performance, representing over 10% of the domestic box office revenue. With already high numbers of Dune: Part Two, AMC anticipates its positive impact on the upcoming first quarter of 2024.
Analysts still need convincing on AMC stock
Despite the analysts not yet incorporating the successful release of Dune: Part Two into their forecasts, the sentiment remains bearish, with a ‘moderate sell’ rating given based on assessments from six experts on TipRanks. None of these experts recommended a ‘buy,’ while three analysts suggested ‘hold’ and three others recommended ‘sell.’
The average price target is $5.22, suggesting a potential increase of 19.72% from the current levels of AMC stock.
Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese predicts that AMC may face a first-quarter EBITDA loss due to a soft start to the quarter but expects a strong March performance with the release of Dune: Part Two on IMAX Corp. (NYSE: IMAX) screens, as AMC has the largest domestic IMAX footprint.
Reese also anticipates AMC returning to positive EBITDA later in the year and improving margins by 2025, though she notes concerns about AMC’s debt load and lack of a dividend.
Despite its strong box office performance, AMC’s $4.6 billion debt load casts a shadow, making it unlikely for AMC stock to return to the levels seen during the meme rally that propelled it to all-time highs.
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