Cryptocurrency expert PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin (BTC), has reaffirmed his prediction that the asset will achieve an average price of $500,000 during the current halving cycle spanning 2024 to 2028.
This outlook comes amid ongoing market fluctuations, with Bitcoin struggling to reclaim the $70,000 level. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,334, having dropped almost 1% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeframe, BTC is up 0.6%.
Bitcoin price prediction
Notably, the Stock-to-Flow framework assesses Bitcoin’s value based on its scarcity by comparing the existing supply (stock) to the rate of new issuance (flow).
Halving events, which reduce mining rewards every four years, progressively increase this ratio and have historically correlated with substantial price appreciation in prior cycles.
PlanB’s analysis incorporates this dynamic, projecting a broad range of $250,000 to $1 million for the period, with $500,000 serving as the approximate midpoint average.
The forecast aligns with the model’s performance during the 2020–2024 cycle, when it projected an average near $55,000 while the actual figure settled around $34,000—still within an acceptable variance, according to PlanB.
He argued the approach remains effective, citing consistent directional accuracy across multiple cycles despite short-term deviations.
The outlook examined Bitcoin’s historical trajectory alongside key indicators such as the 200-week moving average, realized price, and the Stock-to-Flow projection for the 2024–2028 period.
The analysis also overlaid the current price with RSI coloring to highlight momentum, suggesting potential upside if historical patterns persist.
PlanB noted that the model focuses on cycle averages rather than exact peaks or troughs, framing current levels as a potential buying window for investors aligned with its long-term scarcity thesis.
Bitcoin’s increased volatility
The bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin continues to face volatility after pulling back from recent highs near $74,000 earlier in the week.
The cryptocurrency has experienced volatility amid broader market pressures, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have influenced risk assets, alongside fluctuations in ETF inflows and outflows.
Despite the dip, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following a rally that saw it test levels above $72,000 in early March, with some analysts viewing the current range as a potential accumulation zone before further movement.
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