Prediction market participants are assigning low odds to XRP reaching a new all-time high in 2026, amid the cryptocurrency’s struggle to establish a sustained move above the $1 mark.
Data from a Polymarket contract titled “XRP all time high by ___?” shows traders currently assign a 7% probability that the asset will set a new record price by December 31, 2026.
The odds are even lower for an earlier breakout, with the September 30, 2026 contract implying just a 1% chance of a new high.
The market’s skepticism comes as XRP remains below its all-time high of $3.84, reached in January 2018.
The latest probabilities also represent a sharp decline in sentiment. To this end, the September contract has fallen 30%, while the year-end contract is down 44%, indicating traders have become less confident about XRP’s ability to stage a record-breaking rally before 2027.
Although prediction market traders remain cautious, XRP continues to attract attention from investors monitoring potential catalysts that could support higher prices.
Most notably, broader strength across the cryptocurrency market remains the main factor that could drive XRP higher. The token has historically been sensitive to shifts in overall crypto sentiment, particularly movements in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
However, XRP has struggled to maintain momentum following its late-July rally, with prices consolidating around the psychologically important $1 support level.
XRP would need to gain more than 280% from current levels to surpass its all-time high of $3.84. However, prediction market traders currently view that outcome as unlikely in 2026, assigning it just a 7% probability by year-end.
XRP improving on-chain fundamentals
Meanwhile, despite the subdued bullish outlook, on-chain data points to increased activity across the XRP network.
According to Santiment data shared by analyst Ali Martinez on August 12, the number of active XRP addresses has surged 84.18% since August 1, rising from 23,642 to 43,543. The increase marks one of the strongest spikes in network participation this month and suggests growing engagement across the XRP Ledger.
In this regard, the rise in active addresses adds to a broader trend of strengthening XRP Ledger fundamentals. Recent on-chain data has shown sustained growth in wallet activity, network usage, and address creation despite periods of price weakness.
Historically, rising active addresses have been viewed as a sign of increasing network utility and user participation.
However, stronger on-chain activity has yet to translate into a sustained price breakout. As of press time, XRP was trading at $1.02, up nearly 2% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, however, the cryptocurrency remains down more than 3%.
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