Traders on prediction markets are pointing to growing optimism around XRP’s price outlook for May 2026.
Notably, as the cryptocurrency maintains sustained sessions above the $1.40 mark, most traders expect XRP to remain firmly above the $1.50 level while assigning lower odds to a breakout beyond $2.
Specifically, traders currently see a 78% probability of XRP trading above $1.50 at some point during May. The market also assigns a 37% chance that the token could climb above $1.60, according to data obtained by Finbold from cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Kalshi on May 13.
However, the markets place the probability of XRP moving above $1.70 at 16%, while the odds of surpassing $1.80 stand at 11%. The market gives only a 7% chance of XRP rising above $1.90 during the month.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of XRP breaking through the psychologically important $2 mark remains relatively low. Kalshi traders estimate just a 6% probability that the asset will move above both $2 and $2.10 before the end of May.
Overall, the prediction market chart shows sentiment has remained volatile throughout the month.
Forecast probabilities briefly surged around May 11 before pulling back sharply, reflecting shifting trader expectations over XRP’s short-term trajectory.
XRP has largely traded in line with the broader crypto market in recent months, with limited network-specific catalysts driving price action.
However, network growth remains steady, with spot XRP ETFs attracting more than $1.3 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in late 2025.
Market sentiment is also being supported by anticipated regulatory developments. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is expected to review the CLARITY Act around mid-May, with greater regulatory clarity potentially encouraging broader XRP adoption following the resolution of Ripple’s SEC case in 2025.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.42, having made modest losses of less than 0.3% over the past day, while on the weekly timeline, the cryptocurrency down 0.5%.
Meanwhile, XRP has been consolidating in the $1.40 and $1.50 range. With this outlook, a sustained break above the $1.45-$1.50 zone could open the door to targets near $1.70 or higher in the short term.
Support levels remain around $1.38, where sustained holding above this level will be crucial to anchoring the asset for a potential new high.
