The 2026 initial public offering (IPO) landscape increasingly appears like a competition between artificial intelligence (AI) technology companies to see which can hit the markets at a higher valuation.
The June 8 confidential filing also officially brought OpenAI – the firm behind the popular ChatGPT platform – into the race, and cryptocurrency traders on the prediction market Polymarket quickly took to making their bets on how its valuation will be.
At press time on Tuesday, June 9, there appears to be a rising consensus that Sam Altman’s company will soar at least 76% from its latest valuation of $852 billion and grow 55% higher than Anthropic’s most recent $965 billion post-money valuation.
This is the most likely OpenAI IPO closing valuation, per crypto traders
Indeed, Polymarket shows the odds of OpenAI’s IPO being conducted at a market capitalization exceeding $1.5 trillion at 45.8%.
Notably given the latest confidential filing, many traders still believe the firm will not be going public at all in 2026, with the chances of such an outcome standing at 25% at press time.
Meanwhile, the odds of a valuation between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion are only at 7.5%, and of between $1.25 and $1.5 trillion are only slightly higher at 12.3%.
Forecasts for a market capitalization below $1 trillion represent only a trivial share of the pool.
Why OpenAI is set for a highly controversial IPO
Elsewhere, if OpenAI chooses to go public at a valuation higher than $1.5 trillion, it is all but guaranteed to conduct one of the most controversial IPOs in history.
Indeed, though specific figures for the company are scarce and unreliable, the numbers that have come to light in recent months indicate the company is operating at jaw-dropping losses, with the improvements needed to turn a profit within a reasonable timeframe appearing implausible.
Additionally, an OpenAI IPO – and its overall trajectory – is simultaneously likely to be highly contingent on the outcome of the SpaceX offering, which is scheduled for June 12, and on Anthropic, which might go public sooner than Sam Altman’s firm.
At press time on June 9, all three events are viewed as mixed on account of exorbitant valuations, tenuous cash flows, and, in the case of Elon Musk’s space firm, a highly unorthodox structure.
On the flip side, all three are seen as exciting given the importance and the promise of the companies, and all three – though only one has an official date and is set in stone – have already seen stellar endorsement from individuals such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang.
Featured image via Shutterstock
