Macro strategist Henrik Zeberg has cautioned investors that the current advance in technology stocks represents the final phase of a prolonged bull market.
According to the economist, the rally could be signaling a significant downturn ahead, Zeberg said in an X post on August 21.
The Swissblock economist described the ongoing move as the last rally of what he views as a major tech bubble.
To this end, he expects the subsequent decline in technology stocks to resemble the 2000 Dot-com crash, while the broader economy could face challenges exceeding those of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Notably, Zeberg has built a reputation through his use of business cycle analysis, Elliott Wave theory, and macroeconomic indicators.
His latest assessment builds on a detailed Nasdaq 100 analysis that maps the index’s advance since 2002, incorporating Fibonacci extensions and wave structures that point to a potential peak in the mid-to-high 30,000s before a substantial correction.
As of August 21, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 hovered around 29,300, up about 16% year-to-date amid continued strength in large-cap technology stocks. The index remains well above earlier cycle levels, despite recent volatility after reaching around 30,700 earlier this year.
Zeberg remains bullish in the short term, allowing for further upside driven by momentum and residual liquidity, but argues that long-term bullish positioning ignores mounting structural risks.
Zeberg’s economic warnings
The warning aligns with a series of alerts Zeberg issued throughout 2025 and 2026. He has repeatedly highlighted weakening labor market conditions, including the loss of more than one million full-time jobs since spring 2026, softer retail sales, pressure on real wages, and slowing housing activity.
Zeberg’s proprietary coincident indicators moved into contraction territory earlier this summer, a signal he says resembles patterns seen before past recessions.
He argues the market is in the largest bubble on record based on measures such as market capitalization relative to GDP, with technology valuations exceeding previous speculative peaks.
Zeberg views the downturn as a two-stage event: a tech-led correction similar to 2000, followed by a deeper recession that could rival or surpass 2008 due to private credit risks, consumer strain, and limited policy flexibility.
While traditional recession models remain subdued, Zeberg notes they have historically lagged actual economic weakness.
His concerns come amid heavy market reliance on a handful of technology giants, ongoing debate over AI spending, and mixed economic data.
He believes any final equity rally could occur alongside slowing private-sector activity, setting the stage for a sharper reversal once recession signals align.
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