XRP could be heading toward a deeper correction after closing July below its monthly 50-period moving average (MA) for the second consecutive month.
According to an outlook shared by TradingShot in a TradingView post on August 4, this marks the first time XRP has recorded two straight monthly closes below the 1M MA50 since June 2024.
At that time, the cryptocurrency was still trading within its long-term accumulation range before the previous bull market rally.
Based on historical patterns, TradingShot argues that this development signals the final phase of XRP’s bear cycle and could pave the way for a decline toward the $0.80 to $0.65 range.
If realized, the move would represent a drop of roughly 25% to 40% from current levels.
According to the analyst, previous bear market structures suggest XRP is now entering a phase similar to the 2021-2022 downturn. During that cycle, the price eventually found support around its monthly 100-period moving average (1M MA100).
The outlook also highlighted a long-term Fibonacci channel-up structure that has guided XRP’s price action for years. Within that framework, TradingShot identified a potential bottom zone between $0.80 and $0.65, an area that overlaps with the asset’s six-year buy zone.
Notably, the upper end of that range aligns with a possible test of the 1M MA100, while the lower boundary coincides with the monthly 150-period moving average. Meanwhile, the $0.65 target sits just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level that marked XRP’s June 2022 bottom.
Signal from XRP RSI
TradingShot also highlighted the monthly RSI, noting that XRP’s strongest long-term buy signals have historically emerged when the indicator reaches its descending lower-lows trendline, as seen near the 2020 and 2022 cycle bottoms.
With the RSI approaching that level again, the analyst believes a new buy signal could emerge within three to four months, although further downside may occur first.
Previous RSI lows also coincided with XRP trading inside its long-term accumulation zone before major rallies.
Although the near-term outlook remains bearish, TradingShot expects a new bull cycle to follow once the correction ends.
The analysis identifies a long-term higher-highs resistance trendline as the key hurdle, with a breakout potentially opening the door to a move toward $6.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.07, up about 0.5% over the past 24 hours and 1.5% on the weekly timeframe.
However, the cryptocurrency remains under technical pressure, trading below both its 50-day SMA of $1.10 and 200-day SMA of $1.35, signaling that the broader trend remains bearish.
At the same time, the 14-day RSI stands at 45.43, a neutral reading that remains below the key 50 level, indicating bearish momentum is still present despite XRP not being oversold.
Overall, the moving averages continue to point to a downtrend, while the RSI suggests there is still room for additional price movement before a stronger reversal signal emerges.
