Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a decisive technical level that could determine whether its latest recovery develops into a confirmed bull market or faces another significant correction.
Notably, the flagship cryptocurrency rebounded strongly on September 19, climbing back above $80,000 as renewed demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, a wave of short liquidations, and improving regulatory sentiment fueled buying pressure.
According to TradingShot analysis shared in a TradingView post on September 18, Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone formed by its 1-day 20-period moving average and the 50-week moving average (MA), a level the analyst described as the key barrier between a bear phase and a new bull cycle.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s current setup resembles the conditions that preceded sharp declines in January and May 2026.
In both instances, rounded-top formations broke lower, triggering aggressive selloffs. Similar warning signs are emerging again, with the 1-day MACD remaining under pressure after a bearish crossover and the CCI rebounding after briefly falling below -100.
Bitcoin has also failed to reclaim its 50-week moving average despite testing it for three consecutive weeks.
According to the analysis, a weekly close above the 50-week MA is the key condition needed to confirm a new Bitcoin bull market and signal the start of a fresh bullish cycle.
Bitcoin’s key price levels
The outlook places this resistance near the $82,000 region, which aligns with broader market analysis identifying $82,700 to $83,000 as a pivotal breakout zone for Bitcoin.
However, if Bitcoin fails to break through resistance, the analyst warned that the cryptocurrency could follow a path similar to previous bearish legs seen earlier this year.
Using Fibonacci extension projections, the analysis identified a downside target of approximately $61,500.
That level falls within a major support zone defined by the 200-week and 250-week moving averages, areas that have historically attracted buyers during deeper corrections. The projected target would represent a decline of more than 20% from current levels.
Despite the technical caution, several market factors continue to support Bitcoin’s broader uptrend.
The latest rally was fueled by a major short squeeze that liquidated hundreds of millions of dollars in bearish crypto bets.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted strong inflows, including $433 million on September 18 and $159 million on September 17.
Sentiment also improved following positive regulatory signals from the CFTC and SEC regarding digital assets.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $81,329, up about 5% over the past week.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure, trading about 15% above its 200-day SMA near $70,400 and comfortably above its 50-day SMA around $72,500, with a golden cross still intact.
Momentum also remains healthy, with the 14-day RSI at 63.5, indicating strength without overbought conditions. Investors are now watching the $82,700 to $83,000 resistance zone, which many analysts view as the key level for confirming the next phase of Bitcoin’s bull market.
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