Wall Street forecasts for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) by the end of 2026 have been somewhat mixed, with analysts highlighting some key concerns even as the automaker manages to deliver positive results.
For instance, on April 2, the company reported locally produced electric vehicle (EV) sales in China climbing 8.7% year-over-year in March (the fifth consecutive month of growth), but its stock slipped 2.6% in pre-market trading.
The decline was chalked up to investors being more interested in global figures this quarter, with rising oil prices emerging as another factor with the potential to affect share prices. Last month, analysts also pointed to valuation concerns and weak performance in European and American markets.
Currently, Wall Street expects Tesla to report around 366,000 vehicles sold globally so far in 2026, up from roughly 337,000 the year before. As such, the projections are in contrast with the first quarter of 2025, when the management reported deliveries well below expectations.
At press time, TSLA stock was trading at $371.54, down more than 17% since December 31, 2025.
Tesla stock price year-to-date. Source: Finbold
TSLA stock price outlook
Among the most notable recent calls, Canaccord Genuity lowered its TSLA share price target from $520 to $420 on March 31 while maintaining a “Buy.” In addition, the firm raised its first-quarter 2026 delivery estimate to 370,000 vehicles from 367,700, noting still weak conditions in the U.S. and Europe.
Canaccord also touched on Tesla’s announcement of the Terafab project, a new SpaceX partnership set to produce over 1 terawatt of artificial intelligence (AI) compute annually. Based at Giga Texas, the new project will attempt to integrate AI hardware, robotics, and orbital systems to address capacity constraints.
On March 26, RBC Capital reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Tesla with a $500 price target, estimating 367,000 vehicles delivered in the first quarter of 2026. Similarly, Wedbush maintained its own “Outperform” rating a day prior, with a rather bullish price forecast of $600. Elaborating on the figure, the wealth management firm expressed confidence regarding a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla by 2027.
Furthermore, Barclays maintained an “Equalweight” rating on the car market on March 23, with a $360 price target. The firm’s analysts argued that Elon Musk’s moneymaker now faces a significant increase in capital expenditures, adding that Terafab spending could be many multiples higher than expected.
Twelve-month TSLA price target. Source: TipRanks
Wall Street thus remains cautious on Tesla’s long-term trajectory. The stock enjoys a “Hold” consensus rating, based on 13 “Buy,” 11 “Hold,” and seven “Sell” recommendations recorded on TipRanks. The average price target of $395.31 suggests a modest 3.69% upside from current levels.
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