While banking giant JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) lowered its recession probability estimate to below 50%, its top executives have been executing large insider stock sales.
Specifically, over the past two weeks alone, JPMorgan leadership has sold nearly $30 million worth of company stock, according to regulatory filings.
Among the most recent transactions, Marianne Lake, CEO of Consumer & Community Banking, sold $3.3 million in JPMorgan shares on May 16.
Over the past three months, the bank has recorded 20 insider sales totaling nearly 1.2 million shares, with zero insider purchases. Executives have offloaded almost $289 million worth of stock during that period.
These sales were led by CEO Jamie Dimon, who alone sold nearly $250 million in shares. Other notable sellers include Troy Rohrbaugh, CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank, and CFO Jeremy Barnum, with sales of $19.5 million and $10 million, respectively.
JPM recession calls
While insider selling is often part of preset trading plans and personal financial strategies, the timing comes as JPMorgan has warned of ongoing economic risks.
It’s worth noting that amid escalating trade tensions initiated by President Donald Trump, JPMorgan initially projected a U.S. recession as the best-case scenario.
However, following a trade truce between the U.S. and China, the bank revised its recession estimate to just under 50%, cautioning that risks remain elevated.
Despite the trade agreement, Dimon views an economic downturn as a real threat, pointing to soaring federal deficits, persistent inflation, and the potential for higher long-term interest rates as key concerns.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point. <…> If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last,” he said.
Notably, these stock sales coincided with a strong rally in JPM shares, which have surged nearly 17% in the past month, closing at $267 in the latest session.
Much of this gain was driven by the bank’s impressive Q1 2025 earnings, which posted earnings of $5.07 per share on $46.01 billion in revenue, beating analyst estimates of $4.61 per share and $44.11 billion in revenue.
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