Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) hitting a market capitalization of $4 trillion is a target thrown around several times, even by CEO Elon Musk, and an analyst has outlined a path to achieving this goal.
This outlook has gained momentum following Tesla’s recent price surge, triggered by better-than-expected Q3 2024 results.
As of press time, the stock was valued at $269.19, surging almost 23% in just one week. This price movement has seen TSLA reverse 2024’s losses, with gains of over 8% year-to-date, resulting in a market cap of $864 billion.
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Tesla’s path to $4 trillion market cap
Exploring historical growth trends and chart patterns suggests that Tesla’s rise to $4 trillion could be sustainable if it overcomes hurdles, according to JC Parets of AllStarCharts in a post on X dated October 26.
In mapping the stock’s path to $4 trillion, the analyst acknowledged Tesla’s journey over the past decade, characterized by massive gains. For instance, from 2018 to 2020, TSLA stock saw an explosive 3,300% return.
Following this rally, Tesla’s stock entered a multi-year consolidation phase, creating a stable base around its 2021 highs. This consolidation has been crucial in building support at higher price levels.
In 2024, the stock is beginning to break out from this consolidation zone, setting new 12-month highs. This bullish formation resembles the “cup-and-handle” pattern, signaling a potential breakout.
Tesla’s price action also aligns with Fibonacci extension levels, which some traders use to estimate long-term price targets.
Key interest levels include approximately $600, $800, and $1,200 per share, with the possibility of hitting $1,243 in an extended bullish scenario. If TSLA reaches these levels, its market cap could exceed $4 trillion, assuming share issuance remains stable.
Tesla stock fundamentals
Achieving this level would likely require additional catalysts, primarily from the company’s product lineup and the success of autonomous technology.
Such growth would be a relief for Tesla following the short-term negative reaction to the Robotaxi event. Additionally, the stock might benefit from Tesla’s advances in artificial intelligence.
To this end, some analysts suggest that Tesla should not be viewed merely as an EV stock but as an AI equity. For instance, Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives noted that Tesla is currently “the most underpriced AI play in the market.” Many of these fundamentals are expected to come into play in 2025.
Tesla technical outlook
Against this backdrop, SmartReversals analysis shared an X post on October 26, highlighting future expectations for TSLA’s share price. The expert noted that after the recent rally, TSLA stock displays a “double gap” formation—an unusual pattern where multiple price gaps have occurred.
This formation points to similar gaps in April 2024, July 2020, and October 2019. Gaps tend to attract price action in technical analysis, signaling potential future volatility.
With this uncertainty, the expert urged investors to enjoy the current momentum, though the stock may face healthy consolidation before breaking higher. Indicators like the stochastic oscillator also support the rally.
Finally, with Tesla’s impressive Q3 results, such as a 7.85% year-over-year revenue growth to $25.18 billion, analysts have set mixed targets for the EV pioneer. Notably, most estimates range between $250 and $300, according to a Finbold report.
