Gold prices fell below $2,880 per ounce on February 28, marking a three-week low to trade at $2,885 at press time, as a stronger U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions weighed on the metal.
The decline follows President Donald Trump’s confirmation of a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, set to take effect on March 4, alongside an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports on the same date.
The tariff measures have fueled investor concerns, strengthening the dollar and reducing demand for gold.
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Despite the pullback, gold remains one of the best-performing assets of the year, having hit multiple all-time highs in recent sessions.
The metal has gained 8.98% year-to-date (YTD), driven by safe-haven demand, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
For those who invested $1,000 in gold at the start of 2025, that investment would now be worth approximately $1,089.80, reflecting a gain of $89.80 within just a few months. However, investors are now turning their attention to key inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, which could dictate gold’s trajectory in the near term.
Can Gold resume its uptrend?
Despite its recent decline, gold remains positioned for further gains, supported by safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and ongoing concerns over Trump’s trade policies.
However, the stronger U.S. dollar has tempered its short-term upside, leaving its future performance dependent on key economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is set for release on February 28, and the data is expected to provide further clarity on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.
If inflation remains higher than expected, the Fed may delay rate cuts, potentially boosting the dollar and adding further pressure on gold prices.
Amid these developments, AI-driven models, including projections from ChatGPT, estimate that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2025, aligning with long-standing forecasts, with banking giant Citi (NYSE: C) also raising its gold price target for the next three months to $3,000 per ounce.
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