Ahead of the United States elections, which have long been associated with market volatility, a section of corporate insiders are increasingly bullish on their stocks, spending significant amounts on purchases.
These purchases span from early September to October 7 and are concentrated among corporate leaders, particularly CEOs in sectors such as gaming and sports betting, automotive technology, and oil and gas, according to an analysis shared by TrendSpider in an X post on October 10.
Notable insider purchases
For instance, President and CEO Jay Snowden of PENN Entertainment (NASDAQ: PENN) purchased nearly $1 million worth of shares on September 3. This purchase comes as PENN is witnessing product enhancements in the gambling scene.
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One standout product is the ESPN account linking, expected to go live in November, with projections of lowering customer acquisition costs and enhancing retention for PENN. To this end, in an October 8 note, Barclays analyst Felicia Hendrix reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating for the stock with a price target of $23, representing a 22% upside from the current valuation.
Another noteworthy transaction comes from Aptiv PLC (NYSE: APTV), a key player in the automotive technology space, where Kevin Clark, Chairman and CEO, made combined purchases totaling $1.95 million.
Aptiv is heavily involved in electric vehicle (EV) and autonomous driving technology, both of which are poised to benefit from future policies promoting clean energy and advanced automotive systems. Such policies are being associated with Democratic party candidate Kamala Harris.
APTV is attempting to recover from the earlier weakness this year, gaining almost 10% in the past month to trade at $71 by the last market close. Interestingly, despite this insider confidence, a section of institutional investors is showing bearish sentiment, as exhibited by Chesley Taft & Associates LLC, which decreased its position in Aptiv PLC by 76.5% in the third quarter.
The oil and gas sector is also seeing substantial insider buying. Thomas Carter Jr., CEO of Black Stone Minerals (NYSE: BSM), made a massive $1.41 million purchase. In addition to these top buys, Axcella Health (NASDAQ: AXIR) saw a $1.48 million purchase by CEO and Chairman Steven Lisi.
Similarly, the CEO of Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VRDN), Stephen Mahoney, purchased $499,262 worth of stock, signaling confidence in its gene-editing therapies in the biotech sector.
Tech insiders accelerate stock sales
On the flip side, insiders primarily from the technology space have been on a massive selling spree in recent months, led by semiconductor giant Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, who has offloaded over $700 million. Dell (NYSE: DELL), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) have also observed the same trend.
Across these industries, insider buying activity suggests that corporate leaders are making bold moves ahead of what they anticipate will be impactful election outcomes. Indeed, these sectors operate in areas where the leading candidates, Donald Trump and Harris, are centering their policies. A possible shift in energy policy, healthcare reform, and financial regulation are among the key discussion points ahead of the presidential polls.
How will the stock market react to November polls?
Of course, market players are already projecting how the stock market will react to each candidate’s win.
Institutional investors warn that a Vice President Harris victory would be negative for equities. These concerns stem from her proposed 28% corporate tax, which is viewed as likely to impact company earnings.
Banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) shared its outlook on the policy, noting that if implemented, it could cut into the S&P 500 earnings by 5%.
On the other hand, the Republican presidential candidate has proposed lowering corporate tax to between 21% and 15%.
In summary, it remains to be seen whether the elections will impact the stock market and whether the insiders made the right bet. At the moment, it’s a waiting game even as Trump leads Harris in prediction markets.
