Akin to many other superstar stocks of 2024, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been a major driver of investor fear in 2025.
Though at $115.81, NVDA remains an impressive 29.54% above where it stood exactly 52 weeks ago, Nvidia stock price has dropped 13.76% in 2025 and is 22.49% below its $149.43 all-time high (ATH) reached on January 6.
Despite NVDA’s share price not falling exactly like a rock this year, they have showcased that fear truly dominates the market in March, as its stabilizations have been brief and its rallies localized.
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Where Nvidia stock’s fall might stop
However, there is some indication that the plunge will remain limited. Specifically, for all the negativity, the region near $110 has proven a relatively strong support and even a plunge below it – and under the psychologically important $100 price point – could be seen as too good of a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity not to miss.
As Finbold previously reported, Nvidia-specific headwinds are unlikely to cause profound and irreparable damage to the semiconductor giant unless it becomes evident that severe mismanagement is behind the thus far localized design, production, and delivery issues.
Such a factor could prove especially devastating as, even under the circumstances known at press time on March 19, Nvidia is under increasing pressure.
Along with the growing challenges for the semiconductor giant – and for the entire Silicon Valley – emerging from China, the American technology sector is ramping up competition. By March 18, Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) new in-house chips appeared to be a particular concern for Nvidia due to their attractive price point.
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are also known to be working on in-house products.
Still, macroeconomic turbulence remains a major concern both in the short term – as evidenced by the last few weeks in the market for NVDA shares – and in the long run. Nvidia’s high valuation depends on continued confidence in the company’s growth, and if fear currently dominates investor logic, a confirmed recession would likely lead to panic.
Could NVDA stock be a house of cards?
Under such circumstances and after comparing Nvidia with its biggest competitors – Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) – Finbold estimated that NVDA shares might collapse to $36.49 in the extreme bear case.
Interestingly, between the global and company-specific concerns, Fobes estimated a collapse to a somewhat higher price of $60 is plausible.
Though the semiconductor giant is built on solid foundations that make calling it a ‘house of cards’ inaccurate – one only needs to look at the firm’s critical partnerships and growth recorded through 2024 – it isn’t truly stable due to its reliance on hype and bullishness.
While the size of Nvidia’s business is likely to grow and match the firm’s valuation eventually, provided a recession is evaded – an uncertain prospect, given that some experts believe one may have started in early March – continued stock market growth remains dubious without new and tectonic developments.
Featured image via Shutterstock
